4 days left

According to something a little less anecdotal – college kids break about 50% to 40% in favor of Kerry:

http://www.iop.harvard.edu/

Originally posted by Suki:
When I was at Voodoo Music Fest in New Orleans a few weeks ago, I shared space with about 80,000 people - mostly college kids. I asked everyone I was in line with or standing next to if they were going to vote. To a person, they were all fired up - and registered - and voting for KERRY. Now maybe Republican college kids don't "do" rock festivals, but certainly out of forty or fifty people, I would have found ONE??!!

I couldn't get to all the stages, but of the bands I heard, (including a Board favorite, The Pixies) each played at least one anti-war, anti-Bush song, and the crowds went NUTS. Because college kids don't have landline telephones, and cannot be easily polled, their "voices" are missing from most state/party polls. I think the 18- to 24 year olds of America WILL vote, and I think they will take the White House away from the Bush family - at least until Jeb tries to "one up" his brother. I predict Kerry - with a significant popular vote margin…You go, kids. Save America!

and kids prefer bush 52% to 48%

http://teacher.scholastic.com/scholasticnews/indepth/election_countdown/activities/poll_pres/index_backup2.asp

Originally posted by Rhett Miller:
Has anybody else heard stories that Bush may have had a stroke a number of years ago, and that's why he is so loopy?

Maybe it was that pretzel he choked on a few years back…cut off the oxygen to his brain for a few seconds too many and killed the remaining brain cells that hadn't already been decimated by cocaine and liquor.

Originally posted by Venerable Bede:
and kids prefer bush 52% to 48%

http://teacher.scholastic.com/scholasticnews/indepth/election_countdown/activities/poll_pres/index_backup2.asp

i read this article a few days ago and had to laugh…i mean, the guy rarely uses a word containing more than 3 syllables and speaks in short, simple sentences. no wonder 5th graders relate to him better. plus he looks like a chimpanzee…what kids don't like people who make funny faces all the time?

Is there a final day in the US for conducting polls and campaigning? In Spain you can do both up to 48 hours before the election.

Originally posted by Barcelona:
Is there a final day in the US for conducting polls and campaigning? In Spain you can do both up to 48 hours before the election.

nope. . you campaign until the polls close. and pollster's move to exit-polling to get people as they leave.

Originally posted by Venerable Bede:

Originally posted by Barcelona:
Is there a final day in the US for conducting polls and campaigning? In Spain you can do both up to 48 hours before the election.

nope. . you campaign until the polls close. and pollster's move to exit-polling to get people as they leave.

It's the same in Spain and I guess everywhere, you can conduct a poll the same day of the election and make it public once the schools are closed. However, are we still going to see Bush and Kerry campaign on Monday?

Originally posted by Barcelona:

Originally posted by Venerable Bede:
nope. . you campaign until the polls close. and pollster's move to exit-polling to get people as they leave.

It's the same in Spain and I guess everywhere, you can conduct a poll the same day of the election and make it public once the schools are closed. However, are we still going to see Bush and Kerry campaign on Monday?

they'll go back to their home towns to vote, and since texas and massachusetts aren't in play this year, in the battleground states, there will be volunteers 90 feet from the entrance handing out vote bush or vote kerry fliers to everyone passing by. . .course, there will be a ton of other volunteers there as well passing out fliers for other candidates in other races (like house, senate, state races or propositions).

the exit-polling results have been causing problems ever since network started using them. for example, the polls in alaska close at 1 am eastern time. . .so, by the time the polls close in alaska, the election could be decided. also consider, polls in the east close around 7 or so at night, which is 4 out west, and networks start announcing winners. . .tends to decrease voting totals, especially in cases of landslides in the east. plus, the 2000 election had its own share of issues, namely, the exit-pollsters got bad data on florida. . so, networks called florida for gore early in the night, then had to change it, then gave it to bush, then changed it again.

i thought that in england, there's only like a month of campaigning allowed and it's over before they vote. i could be wrong, but i know some countries do put a moratorium on campaigning before a vote.

I think two things are going to happen…

1. For the first time so far in this election, I actually think Kerry will win it (would have put money on Bush up until this week). I think the facts that a) voter registration has been so high b) Kerry looks solid in Pennsylvania and good for Ohio, and most importantly c) that every poll is basically garbage because they don't count cellphone-only users, (who are mostly young and urban and will on the whole lean about 60% towards Kerry)…. mean that if the polls stay as tight as they are until next Tuesday, Kerry will take the election with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and might even swing a couple of others his way.

2) I also think there's going to be chaos because of all the ballot issues, and the huge number of lawyers and lawyer wanna-bes who are out in the swing states ready to litigate whenever they see a chad on the floor.

Originally posted by My Cat Can DJ:
c) that every poll is basically garbage because they don't count cellphone-only users, (who are mostly young and urban and will on the whole lean about 60% towards Kerry)….

from yesterday's post:

At the same time, pollsters argue that the proportion of people who use only a cell phone is tiny. There may be 169 million cell phones in purses or strapped to the belts of Americans, but the overwhelming majority are owned by people who still have a traditional telephone in their home and are reachable by pollsters.

Early this year, a face-to-face survey of 2,000 randomly selected adults found that only 2.5 percent had cell phone service and no traditional home phone. The figures were slightly higher among 18- to-24-year-olds and renters, reported Peter Tuckel of Hunter College in New York, which conducted the study with veteran pollster Harry O'Neill.

One could always cast a protest vote.

ok, from battleground land:
i really think Kerry's going to get Wisconsin. It's amazing. I wish I could share with y'all our numbers, but I can't, but let me tell you… I have never seen such a big ground operation. And I worked Miami-Dade last election cycle. This thing is amazing.

BTW– 4 days left to me means 4 days of living on take out coffee-in-a-box, day old bagels, and bottled water, while shouting at paid canvassers. It couldn't come too soon at this point!

Originally posted by joz:

Originally posted by Venerable Bede:
and kids prefer bush 52% to 48%

http://teacher.scholastic.com/scholasticnews/indepth/election_countdown/activities/poll_pres/index_backup2.asp

i read this article a few days ago and had to laugh…i mean, the guy rarely uses a word containing more than 3 syllables and speaks in short, simple sentences. no wonder 5th graders relate to him better. plus he looks like a chimpanzee…what kids don't like people who make funny faces all the time?

In my experience as a teacher, kids just spout off whatever their parents say at home. If Mommy and Daddy are Bush supporters, so are the wee little ones, and vice versa.

Originally posted by hitman:
In my experience as a teacher, kids just spout off whatever their parents say at home. If Mommy and Daddy are Bush supporters, so are the wee little ones, and vice versa.

Exactly!
Especially for the younger students, meaning below Middle School.

However, this does give you an idea of how their parents are voting, assuming that they are. Possibly up to Xs 2 the above results but that's not likely the real total due to separations and divided preferences.

<img src="http://mushroom.nosox.org/b3ta/bbcnewshappy.png" alt=" - " />

el hombre bush

kerry es un pendeho

Your vote doesn't count!!!!

does it really matter we are fucked anyway…
i like bush more because he is entertaining but i think Kerry could probably help our country more. i just don't want to get drafted.

Originally posted by Barcelona:
I was reading the thing about the Redskins and the election, apparently if they lose on Sunday, looking at past statistics we might see a Kerry victory, funny statistic.

Come on Green Bay! 0-10 in the second quarter.

Originally posted by Barcelona:
I was reading the thing about the Redskins and the election, apparently if they lose on Sunday, looking at past statistics we might see a Kerry victory, funny statistic.

Final:
Green Bay 28
Washington 14

Originally posted by Random Citizen:

Originally posted by Barcelona:
I was reading the thing about the Redskins and the election, apparently if they lose on Sunday, looking at past statistics we might see a Kerry victory, funny statistic.

Final:
Green Bay 28
Washington 14

Good! now there is the other (and apparently more difficult) statistic. I read that according to past elections' statistics, the candidate that wins there, wins the election.

Originally posted by Jaguär:

Originally posted by hitman:
In my experience as a teacher, kids just spout off whatever their parents say at home. If Mommy and Daddy are Bush supporters, so are the wee little ones, and vice versa.

Exactly!
Especially for the younger students, meaning below Middle School.

However, this does give you an idea of how their parents are voting, assuming that they are. Possibly up to Xs 2 the above results but that's not likely the real total due to separations and divided preferences.

you have to take into consideration that many registered democrats are probably childless (college students and under-30 voters just married)…this is just a guess on my part but i would bet there are larger numbers of childless democrats than republicans. furthermore, consider families with multiple children in school; the votes of 2 parents in doesn't quite add up to the votes of 3 or more school-aged kids. i remember that my sixth grade class had a mock-election during the dukakis vs. bush I campaign (ironically, i lived in florida at the time)…my teacher was overtly conservative and the kids in class voted to please, with all but one vote being cast for the sr. bush…i was the only dissenting vote. scary how impressionable kids are.