XM performance theater

Originally posted by kosmo vinyl:
i'll just say it was very cool being able to see a band that rocked my formative years in such a intimate setting… there were 20 of us there. the band sounds great and i gonna get my hands of thier new cd sharpish.

Very awesome, Kosmo. I grew up in Clearwater, FLA, and one year while I was in high school, so like '84 - '85, The Romantics played Busch Gardens, which was SO cool because it was at night after the park closed, but the rides were all open! And there was beer, and I had a good fake I.D. What a great night that was. You're right, the Romantics really rock more than folks remember….

So this Bruce Kelly guy is talking to the band between tunes- and the singer is talking about The Kinks and other stuff that inspired him in the 60's- [Bruce:] " Yes, me too, I'm based on all that stuff… the..uhh…. DC5, and … um" [Romantics singer:] "MC5??" [Bruce:] "MC5, yeah!"

Originally posted by Bagster:
Okay, you're talking percentage of the satellite market – I thought you were talking radio market. Still, 100 million subscribers seems like an awful lot; how many are there now?

They hit 1 million subscribers this week.

I recall reading that XM projected a market of over 40 million. Sirius will eventually go bankrupt so they are not much of a problem.

I'd guess they need roughly 10,000,000 subscribers just to cover annual operating expenses and their guaranteed payments to GM. I don't think they will get to that point next year. Moreover, they've raised $2.0 billion in capital, so there are a lot of hands in the pot.

I think they will do fine in the end, but it will be several years before they get there.

The Romantics are about the nicest bunch of guys you'll ever see… lots of autographs and taking pictures with the fans.

I asked if there were any plans for a club tour I the near future and the answer was yes. Some may disagree but seeing them in the parking lot of a football stadium lacks the same atomsphere of seeing them sweatin' in a club.

Originally posted by ggw™:
They hit 1 million subscribers this week.

Not exactly. They announced they did 1m "recently," but for obvious reasons won't say exactly when. At the Q3 run rate it would be 10/26 but probably more like 10/20-10/22 for reasons too extended to discuss here.

I recall reading that XM projected a market of over 40 million. Sirius will eventually go bankrupt so they are not much of a problem.

40m is very low. For example, there are 16m new cars sold each year. GM, which is rapidly moving toward making XM available throughout its line, moves 5m of those.

Sirius will either go bankrupt or have another constructive bankruptcy to screw the shareholders but their SDARS license belongs to the bondholders and the signal will continue in some form or other. But some of their mistakes have really cost them permanently.

I'd guess they need roughly 10,000,000 subscribers just to cover annual operating expenses and their guaranteed payments to GM.

Nope. They've consistently stated cash flow break even – where cash takes care of operating expenses – is 2.4m subs and that happens no later than November, 2004. True profitability is later, yes. The GM deal is a bargain.

Moreover, they've raised $2.0 billion in capital, so there are a lot of hands in the pot.

Well, make sure one of those hands is yours. Or, don't get rich. Your choice. Fact is there are not enough shares out there. The float is some 100m shares, of which 40m are out short, and whenever some mutual fund says "get me $10m of XM," there goes a half million shares.
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Bagster –

Here's the page for XMU, the indie channel…
http://www.xmradio.com/programming/channel_page.jsp?ch=43

Most recently available playlist:
http://www.xmradio.com/pdf/XMU-Musiculum-10.20.03.pdf

I think you're making a big leap that to think that, because GM will put the equipment in the cars, every new car owner will become a subscriber.

And from what I've heard, the new cars that are "satellite ready" aren't only that, "ready" – you still have to buy the equipment to go in the car. That's a BIG hurdle for folks to get over.

I'll give you this; the playlist looks good!

Originally posted by Bagster:
I'll give you this; the playlist looks good!

:D check out the other ones too.

Some automakers like Audi have "satellite ready" and then you pay the dealer to pop in a satellite tuner box.

But GM is all from the factory. They don't do dealer installs. Honda, another XM shareholder, is now making XM standard equipment in all Acura RL and TL and all Honda Accords with leather.

The takeup rate is averaging 70%, and the churn rate on subscribers picked up through car sales is no different than the overall churn rate, about 1% per month – negligible. The dealers that know what they're doing are seeing as much as 80% activation within 30 days, and the cars with XM sell faster than the ones without. The customers are happier, and that's the idea.
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Thing about that playlist is that, while good, you will find yourself discovering other types of music you probably didn't know you'd be into.

Try it. You've got nothing to lose.

What's your angle here J'Mal?

Your heavily pumping a stock with a ytd return of 500%

Are you with Columbia?

They even have BBC World Service for all you Anglophillies out there. That's right, listen to footie on the speaky box.

Originally posted by edbert:
I can get WRNR loud and smarmy even though I live in DC. Yeah I'd get XM if it weren't for that

If those are your 2 choices…well, let's just say I feel for you, pal.

Columbia? Heavens no, I'm with me. I do have some shares, which I got prior to becoming a very satisfied subscriber. It's not like I fell in love with the service and rationalized the investment decision later. Quite the opposite.

Yes, that 500% this year is nice but it ain't nowhere near where it's going to go. Even Barron's, those wild-eyed irrational exuberists, ran the math earlier this year and concluded quite reasonably that at a mere 10m subscribers XM has 1.5-1.8/year of earnings… so go put a nominal growth multiple on that…

All that aside, the quality and value of the service speaks for itself. This is a forum for people who love music, and if you love music there's really nothing better than XM. If you think I'm just talking my book and full of poo poo, fine. But you'd be missing out.

Originally posted by J'Mal:
Columbia? Heavens no, I'm with me. I do have some shares, which I got prior to becoming a very satisfied subscriber. It's not like I fell in love with the service and rationalized the investment decision later. Quite the opposite.

Yes, that 500% this year is nice but it ain't nowhere near where it's going to go. Even Barron's, those wild-eyed irrational exuberists, ran the math earlier this year and concluded quite reasonably that at a mere 10m subscribers XM has 1.5-1.8/year of earnings… so go put a nominal growth multiple on that…

All that aside, the quality and value of the service speaks for itself. This is a forum for people who love music, and if you love music there's really nothing better than XM. If you think I'm just talking my book and full of poo poo, fine. But you'd be missing out.

yeah, what he said.
minus that stock mumbo-jumbo. i'm no investment expert, but i do know awesome stuff when i see/hear it.