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The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread

Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 06:30 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Mr Suspend Campaign?!?

totally forgot about that one

this timeline is interesting…mostly for it's commentary
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2008/10/the-john-mccain-campaignsuspension-timeline

9/23
McCain admits he hasn’t yet read the three-page bailout proposal …
… because he was too busy, proof that he would need to suspend his campaign to properly address the crisis.
… because he doesn’t know how to open a PDF document.

9/25
On the first day of campaign suspension, McCain’s Web site is still live, and still accepting donations.
… because John McCain doesn’t have time to fix his Web site when he’s busy fixing the economy.
… because he will need the funds when the campaign resumes.



I do agree with Space…McCain was a formidable candidate, not that I would have ever voted for him
hutch
Joined: Unknown
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Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 07:52 PM UTC #
I thought we were talking about who ran a good campaign? My point was people always say the loser ran a poor campaign (was a bad candidate) and the winner a good one when in reality it is often not so

Trump’s campaign was a daily shitshow…he went through 3-4 campaign managers…HRC substantially outraised Trump, HRC ran a tight DNC convention compared to the RNC, Trump lost every debate to HRC who did commit a few unforced errors but her campaign was fairly tight

But people voted for Trump…instead of blaming her blame the people but it’s easier for people to say that she must have ran a bad campaign cause she lost
hutch
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Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 08:12 PM UTC #
And I thought by terrible candidate you meant someone who ran a bad campaign because campaigning is what a candidate does….but maybe you mean something else?
vansmack
Joined: October 04, 2001 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 19725
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 08:49 PM UTC #
Sïdehätch wrote:
but I do think when I read your statement, I thought it was the same as Hutch's
As no one really talks about the shift, they just talk about how many votes some one got more than the other person


I can only write in English, however, that doesn't prevent readers from seeing what they want to see.
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 08:55 PM UTC #
vansmack wrote:
Sïdehätch wrote:
but I do think when I read your statement, I thought it was the same as Hutch's
As no one really talks about the shift, they just talk about how many votes some one got more than the other person


I can only write in English, however, that doesn't prevent readers from seeing what they want to see.

long story short…you are not going to admit this is not the way MOST people discuss election results?
and English is my second language…gibberish is my first
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 09:03 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
And I thought by terrible candidate you meant someone who ran a bad campaign because campaigning is what a candidate does….but maybe you mean something else?

Honestly, I meant that Kerry was a dead fish and has zero charisma
platform was good, but was hard to like the guy
It's interesting to revisit now, as I wasn't as politically involved in 2004
So I have no remembrance of how the campaign was run, I do think Rove was very effective at controlling the nartive with the voting public
But I didn't realize how close Kerry was to winning
vansmack
Joined: October 04, 2001 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 19725
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 09:04 PM UTC #
The last thing Smackie is going to be is MOST people.

And no, I won't dumb down my speech.  Not even for this board.

It's OK that you misread it - mistakes happen.  And I stand by my point, made here for all to see.  The National Popular Vote may not be the silver bullet for Democrats it's currently being touted as.

That's all.
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 09:10 PM UTC #
I object to the electoral college not because it costs democrats elections but because it’s an outdated undemocratic relic….how is it possible a candidate becomes president with 3 million less votes…that is lame…doesn’t matter who is getting screwed
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 13, 2019 at 09:21 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
I object to the electoral college not because it costs democrats elections

vansmack wrote:
The National Popular Vote may not be the silver bullet for Democrats it's currently being touted as.

I know it benefits the Dems…which I'm a proud member of
But I think if you do the math, there are more Dems and we should be winning more elections
and as it has been posted here before by others, they have to do MORE than win a majority to win elections…that is bullshit
You win 50.01% of the vote…you should win
These small states are mostly Red and they know that the way the EC is set up protects their asses
Rather than playing fair, they are OK with a flawed system because it benefits them
I think my stance is much different.

The thing I like about NPV is it's a simple concept and hard to logically argue (trust me they have their talking points ready)
I think we could get a lot support from independents on this as it has nothing to do with a liberal stance on anything

I agree that we should be cautious, but that all of our elections are focused on a few states is a big problem
and the whole winner take all in states really makes democratic voters not even interested in voting as they know it's 5 to 1…but if they knew they vote would be a part of the national election, I do think it would have a positive impact

My concern is after all this effort to get this through…it will just get tied up in the courts and never be able to be implemented
I think the appropriate way to do this is with an amendment, but with out winning elections at the national level, that's not going to happen
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 29, 2019 at 02:36 AM UTC #
vansmack wrote:
Why do I get the feeling this sounds good now, but the first time it is used it's going to fuck me over?

Will you need lubricant?
The fighting blue hen's governor Carny signs.

184 is closer to 270…but still a long long way away.

In the coverage they keep saying how it would have changed the last election
while that's true
I think it should focus more on the 'one person one vote' in your state

The kerry example in Ohio is often cited too
I just think the likelihood of it screwing the Dems is really low and the potential for good is high.
I think it's a good issue to run with because it's not really that controversial in general most like the idea….
it's simple

Unlike…the environment religion taxes unions government workers reproductive freedom undocumented and guns (of course)….all those topics suck there's no way not to alienate a large part of country when you pick a stance on one side


I think Trump could potentially be a unifying moment for the Democratic party…or fall flat on their collective faces as they so often do

I know it is shallow to say…but we really need charisma, boatloads of it.  They are all fairly simliar ( ok pop quiz who is for 1. Sex workers 2. Banning circumcision 3. Jamming with Bob wier)
jrpa
Joined: September 03, 2013 at 03:15 PM UTC
Posts: 29999
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread March 29, 2019 at 02:55 AM UTC #
Sïdehätch wrote:I think Trump could potentially be a unifying moment for the Democratic party…or fall flat on their collective faces as they so often do

I know it is shallow to say…but we really need charisma, boatloads of it.  They are all fairly simliar ( ok pop quiz who is for 1. Sex workers 2. Banning circumcision 3. Jamming with Bob wier)
You forgot to log into the Walkie account.
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread April 04, 2019 at 01:50 PM UTC #
Sïdehätch wrote:
vansmack wrote:
Why do I get the feeling this sounds good now, but the first time it is used it's going to fuck me over?

Will you need lubricant?
The fighting blue hen's governor Carny signs.

184 is closer to 270…but still a long long way away.

ok pop quiz who is for 1. Sex workers 2. Banning circumcision 3. Jamming with Bob wier


[move]On April 3, 2019, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed the National Popular Vote bill  making New Mexico the 15th jurisdiction to have enacted the bill into law.[/move]

It has been enacted into law in 15 states with 189 electoral votes: DC, DE, HI, RI, VT, CO, CT, MD, MA, NM, WA, CA, IL, NJ and NY. 

81 more to go

things are looking up in Ohio (18 votes) to put it on the ballot this year https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190401/ohioans-might-vote-on-issue-to-give-presidency-to-national-popular-vote-winner

Oregon had some news yesterday too
On April 3, 2019, the Senate Rules Committee approved the National Popular Vote bill (status of SB 870).  The bill now goes to the Senate floor

then we'd only need 63 more out of these 10 states!
another 72 electoral votes have passed the measure in one legislative chamber in these states: Arkansas, Arizona, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Oregon.
at the state level there is bi-partisan support
40–16 vote in the Republican-controlled Arizona House
28–18 in Republican-controlled Oklahoma Senate
approved unanimously by committee votes in Republican-controlled states GA and MO
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread August 15, 2019 at 04:52 PM UTC #
vansmack wrote:
In 2004, President Bush won the popular vote 62,040,610 to John Kerry's 59,028,444.  If Kerry had won Ohio (shift Ohio votes by 60,000), he would have won the electoral college and still lost the popular vote.

As I said in my comment before, manage your expectations carefully.

David Frum tweeted something interesting along these lines recently…and I was a little shocked to hear how close the 76 election was


In 1976, Ford lost Ohio by 11,000 votes; Hawaii by 4,000. Slightly different bounce to the game, he'd have been re-elected over Carter in the Electoral College, although losing the popular vote.

I still think you can't compare elections under the EC vs NPV
as voters in deep red or deep blue states currently are discouraged to vote because of the 'winner take all' provisions


also learned that Kennedy lost popular vote in 60 I also learned that kennedy only won the popular vote by 112k in 60
https://www.redwinepolitics.com/syrah/red-stateblue-state
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread August 15, 2019 at 06:30 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Kennedy lost the popular vote?!?


On what planet did this happen?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_United_States_presidential_election


My bad…#fakenews
…the graphics were pretty bad on that red wine site when I looked at real quick..

but it was only 112k lead
a margin of 0.17 percent
that's a rounding error

He did get 303 to 219 in the EC…but barely won the PV
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread September 09, 2019 at 06:25 PM UTC #
oh…by the way….the 2018 midterms are still not over yet

got a special election today in NC with McCready v Bishop
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread September 11, 2019 at 01:06 AM UTC #
ok…I see I posted that the election was Monday…so I messed that one up (surely wasn't the first and won't be the last)

McCready barely in the lead but looking good people
we need this one, if just for the trump tears
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread September 11, 2019 at 01:41 AM UTC #
Nail biter
79% in and bishop is up by over 2k votes
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread September 11, 2019 at 01:44 AM UTC #
Sidehatch kiss of death?
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The "We Should Have a Midterms 2018 Discussion Thread" Thread September 11, 2019 at 02:08 AM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Sidehatch kiss of death?

Sad but true
95% in and they still haven’t called it
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