hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 06:44 PM UTC
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Post any predictions here by Monday night…
I think the following are interesting… they are what I am thinking about these last few days
1. % of eligible voters that will vote… I guess it’s barely over 50% usually (about 140 million in 2016)
2. Do democrats flip Senate?
3. Popular vote percentages for Biden and Trump
4. Electoral college split out of 538 total with 270 needed for win
5. Will we have a clear result Tuesday that Trump accepts win or lose?
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 07:23 PM UTC
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Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 07:26 PM UTC
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Space wrote:
Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
nope…Sidehatch is Anonymous, get it straight!
sweetcell
Joined: July 18, 2006 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 22608
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 07:38 PM UTC
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imma callin' a blue wave:
1. 65% - yeah, you heard me.
2. yes
3. Biden 52%, trump 45%
4. Biden 335, Trump 203
5. doesn't matter whether the result is clear or not: trump won't accept his loss on tuesday or any other day. but answering the question: late tuesday (actually wednesday morning), reputable news outlets will project a biden win but will not be able to confirm it.
WALKonBack
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 07:48 PM UTC
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I predict:
1. I will vote, in a small town firehall
2. I will get my, I Voted sticker
3. I will go on with my, life.
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 07:49 PM UTC
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this is a tricky number 1. % of eligible voters that will vote… I guess it’s barely over 50% usually (about 140 million in 2016)
lot of times percent of Voting Age population is used…so lets make sure we are talking the same number.
the eligible voter turnout rate
2008: Barack Obama v John McCain (61.65%)
2016: Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton (60.1%)
Vs
Election - VAP - Turnout - % Turnout of VAP
2008 - 229,945,000 131,407,000 57.1%
2016 - 250,056,000 138,847,000 55.5%
so if we have 150 million voting in total… That would mean an eligible voter turnout rate of more than 62%.
So 65% is ballsy, but not crazy…my be is going to come in close to that…I'll add a percentage point in there so we don't tie on that
I almost think we should just go for total # of votes cast (3rd party too)
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:04 PM UTC
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Ok that’s good
Let’s just do turnout number although if you do a percent we are talking turnout as sweets did
We just crossed 75 million votes
Not unreasonable to think when early voting is done we will be at 90 million
For 2016 I believe there were about 43 million votes cast early
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:16 PM UTC
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Oh yah whoever is declared Nostradamus will “win” a package full of records and a $20 IMP gift card that I think is sitting in my car…unless it’s Space who will win a package of cassettes
Assuming we get at least ten boardie predictions otherwise all bets are off!!
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:16 PM UTC
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I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
rich_WDC
Joined: August 13, 2001 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 488
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:20 PM UTC
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Space wrote:
I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:26 PM UTC
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rich_WDC wrote:
Space wrote:
I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?
I think they get to split it 6-3
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:28 PM UTC
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Can’t take Roberts for granted…
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:47 PM UTC
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anonymous-hatch wrote:
Space wrote:
Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
nope…Sidehatch is Anonymous, get it straight!
BTW in real life I go by Miles
I will say his interview on the podcast The New Abnormal was awesome …they knew he was anonymous then
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 08:50 PM UTC
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bitter wrote:
Can’t take Roberts for granted…
He seems like a cassette guy though?
He probably still has his hootie and the blowfish cd in the CD player
sweetcell
Joined: July 18, 2006 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 22608
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 09:00 PM UTC
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anonymous-hatch wrote:
rich_WDC wrote:
Space wrote:
I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?
I think they get to split it 6-3
PPOTW!!!
(political post of the week)
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 09:35 PM UTC
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bitter wrote:
Space wrote:
Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
Nope
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/anonymous-new-york-times-oped-writer/index.html
um…stale news since I detailed this just a few posts ago
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 09:59 PM UTC
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Sorry I guess I just look past your posts…
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: Nostradamus 2020 election edition
October 28, 2020 at 10:38 PM UTC
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bitter wrote:
Sorry I guess I just look past your posts…
That seems to be a common trend