What
are the basic tenets of the Democrats?
Aren't they (supposed to be) the party of the common working man? If the two parties had no difference on abortion, you're telling me that most middle/lower class people wouldn't side with the Democrats (if they were truly adhering to Democrat tenets)? Read Thomas Frank's What's the Matter With Kansas for an interesting take on this.
Granted, this is an old news story, but do you think things have really changed that much?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/13786/abortion-issue-guides-one-five-voters.aspxOctober 26, 2004
Abortion Issue Guides One in Five Votersby Lydia Saad, Senior Gallup Poll EditorAbortion, though not the most talked-about subject this presidential election, may be an important stealth issue that could impact the outcome in key states, or even nationally. Most Americans have moderate views on abortion and are focused on other concerns. But there is a segment of voters on either side of the abortion debate – representing 19% of likely voters – who claim that the issue completely directs which candidates they are willing to support. Maximizing turnout among these voters is certain to be an important part of both candidates' Election Day strategies.
"Pro-Life" Voters Have Electoral Edge
By a 52% to 41% margin, Americans are more likely to identify as "pro-choice" than as "pro-life," which would seem to bode well for Democratic candidate John Kerry's chances of capitalizing on the issue. However, pro-life voters may have the greater impact at the polls. The reason lies in their level of intensity.
A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll* shows that self-identified pro-life Americans are nearly three times as likely as pro-choice Americans to describe themselves as single-issue voters on abortion. Thirty percent of pro-lifers say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. This contrasts with only 11% of pro-choicers who say they will only back candidates of a similar mind on abortion.
The net result is that 13% of all likely voters say they are pro-life and will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. Naturally, most of these (90%) are voting for George Bush. By contrast, only 6% of the electorate will vote strictly pro-choice, and virtually all of these people are voting for Kerry. The remaining voters are divided between those who say abortion will be one of many important issues they consider (48% of the voting public), and those who say abortion is not a major factor for them (32%).
These results are not unique to this election. Gallup found a similar pattern in 2000, and the national exit polling in every presidential election since 1984 has shown a net advantage to the pro-life side over the pro-choice side, based on the percentage of single-issue abortion voters in the electorate.
Bush Depends More on the Issue
The importance of the pro-life position to Bush's base of support this year is clear. Nearly a quarter of his voters (23%) are single-issue pro-life voters. Take them away and Bush's lead in the national horse race would disappear. Only 13% of Kerry's supporters are single-issue pro-choice voters. But in a close election, activating these votes could be important to his candidacy also.
sweetcell wrote:
James wrote:
If the Democratic Party were as pro-life and the Republican Party, they'd never lose an election.
i don't think so. a small portion of the republican base is single-issue voters on abortion, but i just don't think there enough people who think "if they just went pro-life, i'd switch". being pro-life, IMO, is part of a wider right-of-center worldview (includes being pro-religion, pro-military, anti-big-gov't, etc). as such, you can't cherry-pick one issue and ignore the wider context it's part of. my experience is that most anti-abortion types are opposed to the basic tenets of the Democrats. but i don't claim to have spent a lot of time with a lot of pro-lifers.
