2009-2010 NFL discussion thread

Mobius wrote:
Dan Snyder has so many similarities to Jay Gatz.  He's like the Shitty Gatsby.  This young shadowy character from unexpectedly humble beginnings with business savvy who made good gonneggions and grew sketchy businesses (telemarketing?) and created an expansive facade which ultimately masked a kind of pathetic character at the core.  Unfortunately its the Redskins floating in the pool.

Wow, that's actually a really good analogy.

perhaps posnanski does a better job

"The Patriots best PERCENTAGE chance was to go for it on fourth down."

it's going to take a long time for these types of statistics to reach the level it has in baseball.

Venerable wrote:
perhaps posnanski does a better job

As usual, you simply site a blog without any recognition of what's going on.  You didn't even watch the end of the game….

Nonetheless, give the credit where it's due:  Brian Burke of the New York Times is actually the one who did all the work and said that the best percentage chance was to go for it.  Posnanski did nothing besides read Burke's piece and quote it verbatim.  At he least he gave the proper citation, which you failed to do here.

Secondly, you are using the averages of the NFL.  Where's the increased chance a defense has to stop an offense because the team on defense has the offense's signals because they've been illegally videotaping the offense for years?  Surely there has to be some derivitave for that right? 

Obviously I'm joking, but I'm using that as an example that there are too many variables for "simple" analysis to explain decisions. 

Where's the home vs road analysis?  How many of those under 2:00 minute touchdonws were good offenses vs bad defenses or vice versa?  How many of those were with 1,2 or 3 timeouts?  Healthy offenses versus healthy defenses?  All of these are simple factors that should be taken into consideration that are completely ignored by Brian Burke.         

Guess what, sports don't live in a vaccuum and that's why you can't use simple theory to explain it.

Bottom line, he ruined his defense's confidence for the rest of the season by his arrogance to win one single football game.  Where's the analysis for the effect of that?  Oh wait, you can't measure psyche in a vacuum.

Venerable wrote:
it's going to take a long time for these types of statistics to reach the level it has in baseball.

76-86
76-86
75-87

Maybe these levels for statistics in baseball were a bit overblown?

vansmack wrote:

Where's the home vs road analysis?  How many of those under 2:00 minute touchdonws were good offenses vs bad defenses or vice versa?  How many of those were with 1,2 or 3 timeouts?  Healthy offenses versus healthy defenses?  All of these are simple factors that should be taken into consideration that are completely ignored by Brian Burke.         

i think this answered your own question……baseball has all sorts of stats, night games in july versus pitchers coming off of 100+ pitch starts. . .yet, football doesn't yet have the stats you want, and until it does, we have to deal with what football does have, and that's on a 4th down and 2 yards or less, the average NFL team is successful 60% of the time.  the individual coach can then ratchet that number up or down depending on the variables, and belichick came to the conclusion that his best chance to win the game (YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME), was to go for it on 4th down (whether the play call was the correct one, which i think is what this argument really boils down to, is a completely separate question).  i think that the statistical analysis supports that conclusion.  but, the NFL old timers, the ones who punt on 4th and 1 from the opponents 45 yard line, say that's ridiculous. . . .and i'm not buying it.  brian burke, easterbrook and all the others, have made a significantly compelling case that belichick made the right decision……you have 4 downs, not 3 downs and oh well, let's punt….

as for baseball. . . moneyball showed how to use an undervalued statistic to help allow for a small market team to compete. . .obp, which was undervalued, is now probably overvalued…..and baseball has progressed beyond obp, now it ops, ops+, era+, win shares and so forth. . .football has nothing that even comes close to this.

Venerable wrote:
but, the NFL old timers, the ones who punt on 4th and 1 from the opponents 45 yard line, say that's ridiculous. . . .and i'm not buying it.

4th and 1 from the opponents 45 is a completely different argument than 4th and 2 from your own 28 with 2 minutes to go and a 6 point lead.  Nobody young or old in football not named Belicheck has said this was a good idea.  Just a bunch of "stat" heads who you've already admitted are not using a full deck for their equations.

On Sunday you and I have always thought you should go for it on 4th and 1 from the opponents 45, but mostly because punters not named Sepulveda suck.  I'm only sad that we weren't watching the game together so I wouldn't have to listen to your contrarian ways because you find it chic to agree with guys like Easterbrook.  If you were there, you would have called it a bad idea.  And you would have been right.

vansmack wrote:
Bottom line, he ruined his defense's confidence for the rest of the season

bottom line?  hyperbole much?

sweetcell wrote:
bottom line?  hyperbole much?

OK.  45 is the over under, with the Pats being an 11 point favorite.  (45/2)-(11/2)=17.

I'll take the over on the Jets scoring 17 points.

first, i'd take that bet mostly 'cause it'll give us grounds for smack (!) talk.  name your proposed wager.

second, the link between the jets scoring more than the vegas line gives them credit for is a very very tenuous way of proving that the pat's D is done for the season.

only massholes who care more about baseball during the winter think going for it on 4th down was a good idea. and even then only 45% of left handers at night

sweetcell wrote:
first, i'd take that bet mostly 'cause it'll give us grounds for smack (!) talk.  name your proposed wager.

second, the link between the jets scoring more than the vegas line gives them credit for is a very very tenuous way of proving that the pat's D is done for the season.

so, what did sweetcell win?

Pats defense, productive offense beat Jets 31-14

sweetcell won nothing, we never agreed to a wager.  but i'll claim the moral victory, "i told you so" is reward enough.

sweetcell wrote:
sweetcell won nothing, we never agreed to a wager.  but i'll claim the moral victory, "i told you so" is reward enough.

And I conceded at halftime via text message.  Sanchez was horrible and all the USC guys I was with said you can forget about him playing in 50 degrees or below weather.  I should have waited for the Drew Brees week to shoot my mouth off.

vansmack wrote:
I should have waited for the Drew Brees week to shoot my mouth off.

except that the saints are averaging over 30 points a game as is.  they'd have to score 50+ points to prove that a defense has serious issues.  somehow i doubt the pats will let brees & co run away with 50+ points (however the pats won't keep pace with the saints).

vansmack wrote:
all the USC guys I was with said you can forget about him playing in 50 degrees or below weather. 

great trait to have when playing in new york, in the AFC (north) East…

Vinny Cerrato resigns:

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=293&sid=1842940

Now if only Dan Snyder would resign…