The "Do we need a Russia/Ukraine/WWIII thread" thread

Because I was too lazy to find the Canada thread

https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/1594779951034732553

I mean, wutthafuggahyagonnado?

^ she slays, as the kids say nowadays…

russia's war in ukraine has mostly faded from the headlines as of late, but now's a good time to start paying attention again:

- ukrainian-backed russian citizens (now including some poles too!) have invaded russia and are holding territory there.  russian army can't dislodge them.
- wagner has pulled out of bakhmut.  russian army now 100% in defense mode.  ukraine on the move on the flanks of bakhmut.
- UK's recently-gifted storm shadow missiles are having the same effect as HIMARS's arrival last summer: decimating russian logistics, command centers and barracks.
- initial signs of the long-awaited ukrainian counter-offensive now being seen.  ukrainian MoD has requested silence during the kick-off, so limited details coming out (and with the media's obsession of both-siding every story, only the russian MoD's false narratives are being reported… annoying, but it'll blow up in their faces when reality catches up).  things about to get very violent.
- russians have been continuously bombing UA cities, most notably Kyiv, for over a month now.  if it wasn't for Patriot batteries and other air defense, the capital would have been leveled by now.
- the rooskiyz blew up the nova kahovka dam on the dnipro river last night.  huge ecological, economic and humanitarian disaster that will be felt for at least a decade.

unfounded prediction: UA will be blown up the kerch bridge in the next 48 hours using storm shadow, in retaliation for the flooding.

shit is hitting the fan.

This doesn’t sound good to me

There will be no presidential elections in Ukraine until the end of the war, stated President Zelenskyy.

SideH@tchıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl wrote:
This doesn’t sound good to me

There will be no presidential elections in Ukraine until the end of the war, stated President Zelenskyy.

yeah it's not a great headline, but it's standard fare for a country at war.  martial law (which Ukraine is under) = suspension of some aspects of democracy, which often includes elections.

how the hell are you supposed to hold free and fair elections in a country that is actively and randomly being bombed?  guaranteed that the rooskiyz will target voting centers, thus making voting a risk to the public.  also, the threat of violence is uneven across the country: voters in the safer western and northern areas would have an easier time getting to the polls than those in the south and east, thus giving them a bigger sway in election outcomes.  for this and many other reasons, any election results would be rightly criticized as unfair, unrepresentative, etc.  best alternative, for now, is to stick with the results of the last valid election.

besides, zelensky's approval ratings are north of 80%.  there is no question who would win.  so skip the distraction of trying to campaign while leading the biggest war since 1945, and get on with the task of dealing with the russian infestation.  i have zero doubts that elections will be one of the first orders of business after liberation.

So it’s over? We win?

Hutch wrote:
So it’s over? We win?

unfortunately not, but anything in particular giving you that impression?

perhaps it's the GOP unwilling to support Ukraine, so one has to assume that we've won since why else would they not support something that they have always supported??

Oh…I saw the Ukraine thread on page 7 and assumed the war was over and the good guys 🥇!

Hutch wrote:
Oh…I saw the Ukraine thread on page 7 and assumed the war was over and the good guys 🥇!

We just got so caught up in the Annie Mae news that it didn't seem that important anymore.

Well…yes…Annie Mae, what can I say other than I will no longer tune in to Caps games and instead watch Fox 5!

… *sigh*… looks like we need to add Yemen to the list of potential WW3 incubators…

i'll post this here instead of stinking up another thread.

i'd like to offer a counter-narrative to "Ukraine can't win".  below are updates from today only that are unlikely to make mainstream news:

- a massive multi-pronged drone attack hit 6 areas inside russia, including lukoil's largest refinery and several other refineries.  UA has been degrading RU's energy sector with drone attacks for months now, moscow is slowly losing the ability to pay for its war.  UA continued their campaign against military industrial infrastructure overnight as well.
- three volunteer battalions (the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Siberian Battalion, and the Russian Volunteer Corps) crossed the border into Russia from Ukraine to conduct combat operations - i.e invade russia.  updates here.
- damage assessment from a drone attack on an aircraft repair facility 3 days ago has confirmed that two A-50 AWACS planes were damaged and likely unrepairable.  it's unclear if russia has any more such "eye in the sky" radar planes left, which until recently have conferred a huge battlefield advantage to the russians.
- a Il-76 troop transport plane crashed, cause TBD.  carried at least 12 air force specialist.  in 15 day period that ended last week, RU lost 15 planes.
- RU's black sea fleet has lost a third of its ships, and what is left has mostly been pulled from crimea and is hiding out in the safety of russia's far eastern shore, well away from the frontlines.  the BSF has been effectively side-lined - by a country without a proper navy.
- see daily loss assessment infographic below (click to enlarge). frontlines have not moved in the past 24 hours.  implication: RU continues senseless meat wave attacks that yield little to no results.

believing that ukraine can't win can be attributed, for some, to lack of information and/or misinformation.  if you aren't aware of developments like those above, it's easy to slip into the russia-pushed narrative of "the latest ukrainian offensive failed, and they recently lost a town they held for 10 years, so i guess ukraine can't win".  but if you follow such daily events, and you realize they're currently doing all that without major international assistance - imagine what could happen with the right resources… that's why i believe that Ukraine can, and will, win. giving up is not an option, and the only negotiations that putin will accept is capitulation.

Propaganda

Hutch wrote:
Propaganda

if you mean "information meant to sway opinion", that's a fair assessment.  that info comes from a specific point of view.  however, it's all true, those are facts (other than what i clearly ID'ed as opinion, i.e. "i believe that…").  if i got anything factually incorrect there, please correct.

if you mean "misinformation and/or disinformation meant to sway opinion", than no.  the ruzzians make shit up, and lie about what has happened, on the daily.  unfortunately they're good at it, and there is an appetite for their narratives.  heck, they got tucker to interview putin so his ramblings could be streamed into the houses of the maga faithful.  talk about a propaganda coup.  thank goodness it backfired, for the most part.

since i have your attention, i'd love your reaction to the following… it was buried in a large rant in another thread so understandable if you missed it:

sweetcell wrote:
to bring it home to you, hutch: it's like saying the malvinas falklands are populated by english speakers, and the british have been there for a really long time, so argentina really should just stop whining and give up its claim to those meaningless islands.  kind of a shitty take, huh?

Well first of all let’s be clear all nations fighting wars use propaganda. You can’t seriously believe any country doesn’t lie etc.

But specifically

I have always believed Argentina could have won. Nobody agrees with me much in Argentina. Easier to blame the evil USA and think it was hopeless. The UK was in real bad shape in early 1982. Argentina had tried to cozy up to the US by training the contras but if it thought there was a quid pro quo where the US would remain neutral well they made a big miscalculation and UN Ambassador Jean Kirkpatrick’s view carried the day over Secretary of State Haig who was more into American neutrality. Having said that if the Argentine military hadn’t done such a poor job planning and the bombs had exploded and they had bought more Exocet missiles and trained the conscripts and not had supply chain issues Argentina could have won because the islands are right next to argentina. But lots of ifs….

People forget that argentina had been arming up and even had designs on nuclear weapons.

But none of it means Argentina will ever give up its claim.

I really don’t see the comparison. Argentina had advantages Ukraine does not. Russia has to be the second or third most powerful military in the world, right? Also, Argentina was fighting on its own whereas Ukraine without US help is toast.

Just cause a cause is right doesn’t mean we have to aid it. Obviously many think it’s in our strategic national interest to forever support Ukraine. I do not. I am not sure it’s even in the Ukraine’s interest.

Those of you who begged me to reach out and see if I could get Hutch back — please gaze upon your desires.

Remember Mankie, who actually fought in the Falklands War?