Stanley Cup Picks

godsshoeshine wrote:
and you do realize that the pens are 5-0 all time in road game 7's

They've never played a game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final….

And since we're just throwing facts out there, it's also been 25 years since a team came back from an 0-2 defecit to win the Cup…

godsshoeshine wrote:i dont think any of that means anything. you throw out everything when it comes to game 7. anything can happen in one game

And this is where I disagree, at least from a gambling perspective.  While technically this is true, I am required to look at every factor, and the best way I see to make any money off this game is to pick Detroit to win by 2 or more goals…

It opened at -170 and has steadily moved down to around -190.  The road team at +160 (opened at +150) or move the goal advantage back towards an even money bet?  Right now, I'll take the even money bet or the under of 5 1/2 goals.

vansmack wrote:

godsshoeshine wrote:
and you do realize that the pens are 5-0 all time in road game 7's

They've never played a game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final….

And since we're just throwing facts out there, it's also been 25 years since a team came back from an 0-2 defecit to win the Cup…

you can quote any stat you want. none of them matter in a one-off game. including the one i threw out

a lot of times the underdog team steals a couple of games with a hot goalie to force a game 7. that was my recollection of the anaheim/devils series. certainly the home team has had the superior goalie throughout this series

godsshoeshine wrote:certainly the home team has had the superior goalie throughout this series

Is this the stat you are referring to?

2009 Finals at the Joe:

Fleury 0-3, 4.35 GAA, 0.857 SV%
Osgood 3-0, 1.67 GAA, 0.947 SV%

godsshoeshine wrote:a lot of times the underdog team steals a couple of games with a hot goalie to force a game 7. that was my recollection of the anaheim/devils series.

That hurt.  Bating me in to reminding the audience that New Jersey (led by former Duck Jeff Friesen) beat the then Mighty Ducks 3-0 in game 7….

As if the Bylsma highlight (lowlight) running since Tuesday wasn't enough.

i meant osgood has been the better goalie over 6 games, not specifically at detroit

vansmack wrote:

godsshoeshine wrote:a lot of times the underdog team steals a couple of games with a hot goalie to force a game 7. that was my recollection of the anaheim/devils series.

That hurt.  Bating me in to reminding the audience that New Jersey (led by former Duck Jeff Friesen) beat the then Mighty Ducks 3-0 in game 7….

As if the Bylsma highlight (lowlight) running since Tuesday wasn't enough.

you brought it up! thats how i remember the colorado/nj series, too to be fair

No I didn't, ESPN did, and had we not won since then I would be really upset, but after seeing those uniforms I'm really kind of OK with it.  Sad that I still own 3 of those old jerseys…

Anyhow, look, I hope you and venerable win.  I hope Julian wins too.  I really do.  But since the Feds are cracking down on offshore internet gambling accounts, I have to cash in as quickly as I can before they shut the sports books down too, so most importantly, I hope I win money.

So I have decided to root for Detroit by two goals or more OR Pittsburgh if it's a one goal game.  That way I please everybody.  But truthfully, as a fan, I hope we get a 1994esque game 7 (although 2004 and 2006 were good too).  Even if I lose $100, I still want to be entertained above all else.

i dont really bet on sports and i really dont even understand what you win if your bet hits, but i dont really see the logic in using a relatively small set of game 7's to determine your bet. especially when they didnt involve the teams currently playing. i would think youd get better odds flying in the face of espnisms, but thats just me

but hey, it the pens win by 1 i'll take it

Detroit to win (-190) means I have to bet $190 to win $100 (plus I recoup my bet for a total of $290).  High risk, low reward, but they are the favorite to win. 

Pittsburgh to win (+160) means I have to bet $100 to win $160 (plus I recoup my bet for a total of $260).  Low risk, high reward, but I'm picking the underdog.

Instead, I have the option to tease the bet to Detriot wins by 2 goals for an even money bet - I bet $100 to win $100 (plus I recoup my bet for a total of $200).  Risk equals reward, but I'm taking a chance and increasing the burden on the favorite.

That's the same as betting the over under at 5 1/2 total goals scored, which is an even money bet (bet $100 to win $100 for a $200 payout).  This is a tempting bet because I'm pretty sure that no game 7 final in my lifetime has had over 5 total goals scored. 

godsshoeshine wrote:
i dont really see the logic in using a relatively small set of game 7's to determine your bet. especially when they didnt involve the teams currently playing.

But here's what we do know - the strategy for winning a game 7 will not change.  The players may change, but I guarantee you both coaches are preaching the same thing right now:

Take few chances on defense, and by few, I mean zero.  Defensemen do not go forward, let the forwards score the goals.

Forwards, throw the puck at the net as often as you can and hope you get a break.  You can't turn the puck over if you don't pass a whole lot, so lets see if we get a lucky bounce.  More important is that you come back and play defense.  Think of it as playing in OT for 3 periods.

Don't give the refs any reason to blow the whistle on you unless it prevents a goal scoring opportunity.  There will be very few penalties taken, and even fewer called.  The players will play conservative and the officials will let the game play out as they don't want to decide the outcome.

All of this will make for very tight hockey and fans of neither team can only hope for a third period like we had in game six.  Fans of either squad can hope for a blowout but should expect a mistake free hockey game that's close with 10 minutes to go. 

i agree with that for the most part. the under looks like the best bet of all of those

i'll be taking that over.  it is 5 1/2 right?

 

godsshoeshine wrote:
i agree with that for the most part. the under looks like the best bet of all of those

I think I've talked myself into that as well….

1987 Edmonton 3-1 Philadelphia (4)
1994 New York 3-2 Vancouver (5)
2001 Colorado 3-1 New Jersey (4)
2003 New Jersey 3-0 Anaheim (3) 
2004 Tampa Bay 2-1 Calgary (3)
2006 Carolina 3-1 Edmonton (4)

back wrote:
i'll be taking that over.   it is 5 1/2 right?

It is.

pens will win 4-2 including an empty netter.  pittsburgh will be the city of champions!

jdreagle wrote:
pens will win 4-2 including an empty netter.  pittsburgh will be the city of champions!

boston is the city of champions, get it right.

i'm going with 4-2 Wings.

champions of what

At some point we do need to discuss the potential for how great tomorrow can be for the sport.

A Friday night, in primetime on the East Coast and during happy hour for the less hockey interested west coast, with no basketball game going up against it.

Something magical could do a lot for the future of hockey.

its going to be so great that i'll be at a concert in Brooklyn during the game….