202(2)5 - dems in disarray thread

Space wrote:

Julian, wrote:

SoldMyPoll4RnR wrote:
so if we want the senate, are we all sending money into Warnock's run off

is it only one month this time?

I think it'll be 50-49 for the Dems going into the runoff at this point.

Cortez Masto will pull it out?

The election data nerds say she is still a slight favorite.

SoldMyPoll4RnR wrote:

Julian, wrote:

SoldMyPoll4RnR wrote:
so if we want the senate, are we all sending money into Warnock's run off

is it only one month this time?

I think it'll be 50-49 for the Dems going into the runoff at this point.

oh so save my money and dump into TSLA

wrong take: we need Warnock to win, so Dems have a one-vote majority, AKA they can afford to lose a vote and still pass things (on votes that only require 50).  this would allow the Dems to occasionally tell Manchin to sit down and shut up.

Julian, wrote:
Nate Silver is saying his current best guess is GOP 220-Dems 215. While I never want to see the Dems lose the house, trying to see the GOP form a quorum will be hilarious if that's the margin.

i think that would be a scary situation: just like the entire Dem caucus had to kowtow to Manchin every time he wanted to extract concessions; the fringe elements of the GOP - MTG and the like - suddenly become kingmakers.  in his desperation to get the gavel, mccarthy is likely willing to give whatever those folks want in exchange for their support.  i don't want to see MGT on, say, the judiciary committee… but she could demand it if her vote is important enough.  on the flip side, given their penchant for disorganization and self-centeredness, a house with a slim GOP majority will likely devolve into a shit-show that goes nowhere more often than not.

Justin wrote:

sweetcell wrote:
“Candidates matter,” the Trump adviser said. “They were all bad candidates,” the adviser continued, critiquing many of Trump’s handpicked contenders in key battleground states.

Trump clones minus the messianic auras equal unelectable buffoons.

Trump plus the messianic aura equal an electable but even bigger buffoon.

that's so trump: pumped up those candidates in the run-up, "we have the best, the best people", etc etc etc and then cuts them loose like an anchor the second they fail - in his name.  because trump can only win, right?  if he doesn't, then it's someone else's fault…

Starsky wrote:
There are all kinds of takes on what happened last night; thankfully what I thought would happen did not.

 
i'm still partial to the theory that the majority of polls in the last month were from right-leaning or right-sponsored pollsters, so their results skewed the poll-of-poll numbers that talking heads use - hence the chicken little-worth claims of imminent and complete doom.  conspiracy theory is that they did this to create enthusiasm on the right and suppress votes on the left ("why bother voting, the dems aren't going to win either way…").  maybe it backfired?  maybe the right became complacent ("we got this, no worries") while motivating the left?

PA Dems just flipped their House as well, first time in control in a decade

sweetcell wrote:

Justin wrote:

sweetcell wrote:
“Candidates matter,” the Trump adviser said. “They were all bad candidates,” the adviser continued, critiquing many of Trump’s handpicked contenders in key battleground states.

Trump clones minus the messianic auras equal unelectable buffoons.

Trump plus the messianic aura equal an electable but even bigger buffoon.

that's so trump: pumped up those candidates in the run-up, "we have the best, the best people", etc etc etc and then cuts them loose like an anchor the second they fail - in his name.  because trump can only win, right?  if he doesn't, then it's someone else's fault…

Speaking of unelectable buffoons: Dan Cox:  “While we always felt it might be a close race, the outcome was a complete surprise.”

Trump is just going to blame McConnell and McCarthy if things go bad.

But, yeah, regardless of final numbers a bad night for Trump. Got to wonder if the party will continue to suck up to and coddle him. Also have to ask if Trump fever may have broken.

"if they win, I should get all the credit, if they lose I should not be blamed at all"

I bet you can't guess who said that

Boebert down by about 70 votes right now

Clusterfuck in Maricopa

Starsky wrote:
Arlington County results. Clement loses another one even with my vote.

What a lot of wealthy arlingtonions didn’t realize is a vote for de ferrantti  was a vote for the missing middle

Clement was 100% opposed to the missing middle plan

Huh? She did way better in north Arlington precisely cause people realized it…she performed worse around where you live…

She actually won some areas all in north Arlington

Maybe I am misunderstanding you

Ok I think I understand what you are saying….many probably didn’t realize it.. but obviously some did given how Clement relatively speaking performed better in North Arlington (or does she usually perform better in the north?) the whole missing middle thing was weird as it wasn’t on the ballot directly and I bet many thought it would be..

I can’t believe I voted for over half a billion in new local spending!

Starsky wrote:
Ok I think I understand what you are saying….many probably didn’t realize it.. but obviously some did given how Clement relatively speaking performed better in North Arlington (or does she usually perform better in the north?) the whole missing middle thing was weird as it wasn’t on the ballot directly and I bet many thought it would be..

Yes confused a lot that it was not directly on the ballot and didn't understand who supported it
Makes sence she crushed in N.Arl where all the rich/single family homes are

I think clement did very poorly in the poor side of Arlington, my hood (Lower Arlington: keeping Arlington stabby)

(poor Arlington where it's only 800-1.5mill for a SFH.  To be fair, we also have a lot of section 8 housing, don't think there is any above rt 50)

I am still confused by your original post but am giving up. You seem to have directly contradicted yourself.

well I was thinking with clement getting only 28% a lot of wealthy SFH residents in arliton didn't realize they should have voted for her if they were opposed to the missing middle

but maybe they only make up 30% of the arlintonion pop?

Eat the rich!  …waitamin, most people think I'm rich, so maybe I need to rethink that

SoldMyPoll4RnR wrote:
well I was thinking with clement getting only 28% a lot of wealthy SFH residents in arliton didn't realize they should have voted for her if they were opposed to the missing middle

but maybe they only make up 30% of the arlintonion pop?

Eat the rich!  …waitamin, most people think I'm rich, so maybe I need to rethink that

I think a homeowner in the area you live near the new Amazon has seen their property appreciate more than anyone else in Arlington.

Clement is really progressive so it’s sad if relatively less wealthy people in Arlington just straight vote D.

As I said, Clement won 3 or 4 districts in north Arlington with over 50%. Her worst area was close to the pentagon with 20%. So, I take your point that maybe some people in north Arlington weren’t informed but seems like in general they were quite informed which is why she did better in north Arlington.

I now pronounce this horse dead.

Starsky wrote:

I think a homeowner in the area you live near the new Amazon has seen their property appreciate more than anyone else in Arlington.

can confirm! equity has grown tremendously in 4 years

but we still are on the wrong side of rt 50

ok one more beat down on this horse

The sample ballot that Arlington Dems handed out didn't have Clement on their sample ballot…so I think that had an impact too

also De Feranti does have a liberal pedigree, but he's no bernie

Yikes just read this too
Clement, in her 11th bid for the office,
Time to throw in the towel

Starsky wrote:
I am still confused by your original post but am giving up. You seem to have directly contradicted yourself.

Starsky wrote:
I now pronounce this horse dead.

You might say it's an excontradiction?

short video of right-wing pundits melting down over election results - their solution is to get those pesky independent young women married

one of my favorite talking heads attributed the lack of a red wave to the following 3 factors:

- GOP took away rights (abortion) which was unpopular across the board
- trump is a liability in the general
- young voters showed for the dems, usually they're written off as "unlikely voters" but that wasn't the case.