The Armageddon Election 2024 Or Apocalypse 2024

When I wrote I check out RCP I just meant I look at their numbers. Am not saying they don’t include shaky polls but you can still read trends and also I like their presentation of numbers comparing to 2020 and 2016. I also think the fact 66% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track is an issue, the fact she was anointed without going through a primary, picking Walz, and just not being a good fit for PA, MI and WI all have to be taken into account . I think Nate Silver’s site is really weak in comparison to RCP. He just feeds info into a model and comes out with “if we ran the model 1000 times Kamala would win 558 but they are essentially tied”… I like looking at the numbers for myself. And a week to ten days ago I began to notice Trump’s numbers moving in the right direction (this trend has intensified ). Then I filter what I see through what I think is happening. This is very subjective of course. Then I look at the campaigns and what I think candidates are doing and if it’s what I think they should be doing. At the end of the day it’s all subjective other than the fact Trump has been doing better since the debate. That in it of itself doesn’t mean he will win. But when I look at the trends, my instincts and what the campaigns are doing(the Harris approach is a replay of Hillary: Trump is a wacko) and their  messaging.

We are three weeks out. I think barring some crazy surprise in 5 days this election is over. It may already be over. I don’t believe in these mythical undecideds or that Harris can win over dudes that listen to Rogan. All she should be doing/should have been doing is energizing her base to get out and go to the trouble of voting for her. Giving people reasons to vote FOR her and not just AGAINST him.

The D campaign has just been one error after another. Biden should never have agreed to debate. And if he agreed to debate it should have been way later in the calendar. After the debate democrats should have stuck with Joe instead of making him step down. Then D went with Harris (another mistake). Then Harris picked Walz (another mistake). Then Harris said she would not have done anything differently from Joe (another mistake).

It really has been a debacle and once again democrats are poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just like 2000 and 2016.

hutch wrote:
After the debate democrats should have stuck with Joe instead of making him step down.

dude put down the crack pipe

joe had ZERO chance of winning after that debate, and you know it.  i get that you believe that trump will win, and it's not a crazy position to take, but let's not change history to fit a current narrative

hutch wrote:
once again democrats are poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just like 2000 and 2016.

ancient history.  most relevant example is the most recent… remind me how that went?

i look forward to posting a compendium of your doom-and-gloom posts once harris is prez-elect

sweetcell wrote:

hutch wrote:
After the debate democrats should have stuck with Joe instead of making him step down.

dude put down the crack pipe

joe had ZERO chance of winning after that debate, and you know it.  i get that you believe that trump will win, and it's not a crazy position to take, but let's not change history to fit a current narrative

hutch wrote:
once again democrats are poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just like 2000 and 2016.

ancient history.  most relevant example is the most recent… remind me how that went?

i look forward to posting a compendium of your doom-and-gloom posts once harris is prez-elect

I stand by my comment regarding dumping Biden. His numbers cratered AFTER democrats called for him to step down particularly Obama.

2020 is an outlier because of COVID and had it not been for the pandemic Trump would have been re-elected.

I really hope to read that compendium.

But that's not true.  Biden did close the gap a bit here and there, but from basically mid-September through the debate he was down in polling averages.  Hell, his final polling before dropping out wasn't even the worst margin he had against Trump.  And his final collapse started days before the debate.

hutch wrote:
I stand by my comment regarding dumping Biden. His numbers cratered AFTER democrats called for him to step down particularly Obama.

Of course he was down but so what? He had plenty of time to come back and he was only down cause WE democrats abandoned him. We would have come back to him. The campaign still had to be run!!! It was very early!!

Anyways is that how we run things? If a guy is down in the polls we replace him with someone nobody actually voted on?? That’s fucked up and extremely un democratic. I would have taken my chances with Scranton Joe in PA over Harris any day.

One can’t say because he was down in the polls with US democrats that we couldn’t have come back to him faced with a Trump presidency.

And as far as I remember the polls it was when Obama said he should not be the candidate..well not even said actually just in a cowardly matter told people who then reported it…it was only then that his support bottomed..that was the kiss of death cause his unwavering base - black voters- then abandoned him

Local GA judge blocked the MAGA Election board rule that ballots had to be hand counted and another GA court declared ""no election superintendent (or member of a board of elections and registration) may refuse to certify or abstain from certifying election results under any circumstance."

not a good day for GA election deniers and hopefully less ratfuckery down there…

It’s amazing that after 2000 we couldn’t get a nationwide set of agreed upon election standards and regulations. Remember the butterfly ballot?

I mean you don’t see republicans abandon Trump cause he is old and makes crazy statements and dances with himself at a rally for 30 minutes!!!

But we had to go and ditch the horse that got us to the White House. Every day for weeks the headlines were “Schiff (Pelosi’s boy!) says Biden should not run for reelection “ and “Obama has privately told democrats that Biden should not run…” The only smart democrats were the Clinton’s that kept their big mouths shut.

Anyways I have better and more pleasant things to do with my time than post about this…like jamming an ice pick in my eye- repeatedly.

hutch wrote:
It’s amazing that after 2000 we couldn’t get a nationwide set of agreed upon election standards and regulations. Remember the butterfly ballot?

Seems easy to do but only POTUS is elected nationally so it's very much a state/municipal issue.

Justin wrote:

hutch wrote:
It’s amazing that after 2000 we couldn’t get a nationwide set of agreed upon election standards and regulations. Remember the butterfly ballot?

Seems easy to do but only POTUS is elected nationally so it's very much a state/municipal issue.

Don’t tell me it’s too hard. The republicans were more than happy to steal the election with the connivance of the Supreme Court (elections are a state and local issue unless you want to recount your votes…THEN the national government can tell you NO!) and do nothing.

By the time democrats had taken power in 2008 it was yesterday’s papers.

hutch wrote:
It’s amazing that after 2000 we couldn’t get a nationwide set of agreed upon election standards and regulations. Remember the butterfly ballot?

that's because the states run General Elections, not the feds

I do think the supreme court can weigh in on issues at the state level, but it doesn't start with the Suprem Court…that's where it ends

  I mean I do think at this point, to hell with shooting someone (any crooked lawyer can make a defense), but he could drop trow, squat down and take a big steaming McDump on stage in front of them and his believers would lap it up and call it soft serve. The interviews that I heard with attendees of "the love fest" in PA couldn't have been less phased, "it was the perfect soundtrack for the moment". Plus, the media is painting it as he was chilling while DJ-ing, but they should really be emphasizing 40-damn minutes. Imagine just the visual. Old man, stands around in bronzer and swaying, asking for the same song to be played back-to-back. I'd be questioning my sanity.
  I'll say this re: Biden though, it wasn't just the standing there at the debate, it's the shuffle walk and that he does look frail. I stood up for him with friends and family for a long time, but again, visuals. Plus, you hear him from 2016, and he really did sound a lot more like the Obama era Biden. The Ds always had a tougher hill to climb, and I don't know how they would have made that climb with Biden. Hubris, but the people who play this game and both get paid to and spend their lives running these numbers should have started being real and pushing for him to step aside sooner. That said, I'm not sure when.
  Fuck. 

election-hatch wrote:

hutch wrote:
It’s amazing that after 2000 we couldn’t get a nationwide set of agreed upon election standards and regulations. Remember the butterfly ballot?

that's because the states run General Elections, not the feds

I do think the supreme court can weigh in on issues at the state level, but it doesn't start with the Suprem Court…that's where it ends

Excuses..the federal government has a lot of power to do shit…like via the elastic clause…or how did we move the drinking age from 18 to 21 NATIONALLY


Bunch of defeatists here….waaaah waaah the government is powerless…

I agree . Biden should not have ran for reelection. The pressure should have come in 2023. But it’s hard to pressure the fucking president coming off a good midterms.

So instead they waited until they saw the opening after the debate and THEN pulled the rug from under him (none of them had the balls to leak shit about Biden being Gaga until after the debate! Profiles in courage!) said fuck democracy we are going to shove Kamala down your throat 90 days before the election and we don’t care what you think you will like it and vote for it.

hutch wrote:

election-hatch wrote:

hutch wrote:
It’s amazing that after 2000 we couldn’t get a nationwide set of agreed upon election standards and regulations. Remember the butterfly ballot?

that's because the states run General Elections, not the feds

I do think the supreme court can weigh in on issues at the state level, but it doesn't start with the Suprem Court…that's where it ends

Excuses..the federal government has a lot of power to do shit…like via the elastic clause…or how did we move the drinking age from 18 to 21 NATIONALLY


Bunch of defeatists here….waaaah waaah the government is powerless…

Drinking age was super easy since it was tied to federal highway funds, i.e. no 21+ no spanking new interstate spur.

What legal device should the fed use or invent to federalize aspects of election law? Pretend you're a senator or congressperson and write a bill for consideration.

Justin wrote:

hutch wrote:

election-hatch wrote:

hutch wrote:
It’s amazing that after 2000 we couldn’t get a nationwide set of agreed upon election standards and regulations. Remember the butterfly ballot?

that's because the states run General Elections, not the feds

I do think the supreme court can weigh in on issues at the state level, but it doesn't start with the Suprem Court…that's where it ends

Excuses..the federal government has a lot of power to do shit…like via the elastic clause…or how did we move the drinking age from 18 to 21 NATIONALLY


Bunch of defeatists here….waaaah waaah the government is powerless…

Drinking age was super easy since it was tied to federal highway funds, i.e. no 21+ no spanking new interstate spur.

What legal device should the fed use or invent to federalize aspects of election law? Pretend you're a senator or congressperson and write a bill for consideration.

I mean just run back the Dole model? Acknowledge/pretend marijuana has valid medicinal benefits and tie federal Medicaid/care dollars to its legalization? 

It was rhetorical. Well aware how we got to 21. Why can’t they do something like that over voting.

The answer is cause neither party wants to.

MM not to excited about her prospects in MI right now…thinks the arab population is key to winning there

https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/my-plea-to-kamala


this is a depressing feature on RCP
This Day In History: October 17, 2020: Biden +9.0 | October 17, 2016: Clinton +7.0
(Kamala is at +1.5 today)


yikes, looks like hispanics are leaving the dems in droves…not good news