Twitter thread

Excellent thread on the home affordability over the decades 
https://twitter.com/cheeseforevery1/status/1522644737806815232?s=21&t=rJGSHJHtjQAwnlw9DXMLgA

Musk puts on hold Twitter purchase

odd reasoning…but that tracks (that he does odd things)

on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users

also, what's going on with Steve Schmidt and the Lincoln Project.  I guess we kinda knew we were letting wolves in the hen house

Side wrote:
Excellent thread on the home affordability over the decades 
https://twitter.com/cheeseforevery1/status/1522644737806815232?s=21&t=rJGSHJHtjQAwnlw9DXMLgA

I know someone who would say that the cause of the rise in housing affordability is due to women being more available in the workforce…thus more worker supply, enabling employers to pay less than the amount necessary to keep up with the housing markets. What would the experts say to that?

Where are these experts?



Some people say the housing market will crash next


People say a lot of things

Space wrote:

Side wrote:
Excellent thread on the home affordability over the decades 
https://twitter.com/cheeseforevery1/status/1522644737806815232?s=21&t=rJGSHJHtjQAwnlw9DXMLgA

I know someone who would say that the cause of the rise in housing affordability is due to women being more available in the workforce…thus more worker supply, enabling employers to pay less than the amount necessary to keep up with the housing markets. What would the experts say to that?

You clearly didn't REALLY read this thread

all the houses are the fictional houses of TV shows like the sopranos, the brady bunch etc…

Starsky wrote:
Where are these experts?



Some people say the housing market will crash next


People say a lot of things

I'm going to freely admit I don't know the answer to this, but can people point me to a time when housing prices legitimately crashed? Not, went down 5% and rebounded in a 18 months, but crashed.

Side wrote:

Space wrote:

Side wrote:
Excellent thread on the home affordability over the decades 
https://twitter.com/cheeseforevery1/status/1522644737806815232?s=21&t=rJGSHJHtjQAwnlw9DXMLgA

I know someone who would say that the cause of the rise in housing affordability is due to women being more available in the workforce…thus more worker supply, enabling employers to pay less than the amount necessary to keep up with the housing markets. What would the experts say to that?

You clearly didn't REALLY read this thread

all the houses are the fictional houses of TV shows like the sopranos, the brady bunch etc…

You're right, I didn't. When I click on a Twitter link on my work laptop, I get a popup saying I need to login to Twitter to continue after about five seconds. And I don't remember my login information.

But is the sentiment really that far off? My blue collar father in law who had three kids paid for a single family home in suburban Chicago in the 70's and 80's on one salary.

Julian, wrote:

Starsky wrote:
Where are these experts?



Some people say the housing market will crash next


People say a lot of things

I'm going to freely admit I don't know the answer to this, but can people point me to a time when housing prices legitimately crashed? Not, went down 5% and rebounded in a 18 months, but crashed.

2008

Space wrote:

Julian, wrote:

Starsky wrote:
Where are these experts?



Some people say the housing market will crash next


People say a lot of things

I'm going to freely admit I don't know the answer to this, but can people point me to a time when housing prices legitimately crashed? Not, went down 5% and rebounded in a 18 months, but crashed.

2008

Did they really though? I'm not saying there were no deals whatsoever to be had in 2008 or someone who bought in 2007 and sold in 2008 didn't get bopped, but from 2006-2011, didn't house prices rise generally? Feel free to correct me with data.

No secret incomes haven’t kept up

Starsky wrote:
No secret incomes haven’t kept up

and heath care costs

Starsky wrote:
No secret incomes haven’t kept up

I would argue for a sufficient number of people they have as evidenced by houses selling.

People are buying multiple houses. Less people own the same number of houses and more people are getting shifted to the renter class. Which has negative externalities, but house prices going down isn't one.

No secret inequality has gone up

Starsky wrote:
No secret inequality has gone up

Agreed. But you're talking about the social aspect of this. Which is fine discussion. But what I'm saying from a purely economic standpoint that I don't think rising inequality = housing bubble.

Space wrote:
2008

yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

but if you are in real estate on anything but a 10 year time horizon, it's just risky

I actually don’t know what I am talking about…

Side wrote:

Space wrote:
2008

yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

but if you are in real estate on anything but a 10 year time horizon, it's just risky

See, I asked for data and someone gave it to me. Thanks. So my view of 2008 was correct-ish in spirit but I had the dip a bit too compressed.

yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

^ That's the key.

Starsky wrote:
I actually don’t know what I am talking about…

that's no secret