Maybe we should just elect Trump president

Julian, wrote:

le wrote:
but yeah if H can win VA and FL and she looks comfortably up she could lose almost every contested state and still win!

I'm sure you agree but if Hillary wins VA and FL it speaks to larger national and demographic trends  that all but assure she will take 75% of the contested states (i. e. if she takes Va and FL, she's winning Pennsylvania and Nevada by extremely comfortable margins and Ohio by around the amount she takes FL).

well… I can't be sure of that… I err on the side of caution.. polls coming out of VA and FL show her leading very comfortably..

I guess what I'm saying is even in a worst case scenario if she wins FL and VA she would be in…


as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .Sidehatch you really need to look into this stuff because the idea you can like Bernie and Mark Warner is pretty laughable… I mean WTF? Also, Warner gave the worst Democratic Convention speech I can recall… he is just awful.

I feel strong dislike for Mark Warner in case it wasn't clear…. he's permanently talking about compromise compromise compromise.. and NEVER gets anything actually done.

And I don't know.. I would have to see the demographics for VA and FL vs PA


yes PA has gone blue for a long time.. but VA and FL have far more hispanics coming in… also VA and FL have less of a "rust belty" feel to them…. the western half of PA might as well be OH.. also VA and FL- don't quote me on this- have had pretty dynamic job pictures.. how is PA doing?

at this point - at least in the polls for whatever they're worth- HRC lead in VA and FL is nearly double that in PA…

of course once they get done digging up the dead bodies in Philly…..and remember that Trump did fairly poor in VA primary.. yes he won but with barely 30%!

as far as FL you have Jeb Bush , Rubio .. even the Miami mayor is on record that he will not vote for Trump.. the Cuban American republicans who usually go Republican- a lot of them are on record saying they will not vote for Trump….  add the half million new Puerto Ricans in FL.. geez, its not a pretty picture for Trump down there…

le wrote:
as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

Julian, wrote:

le wrote:
as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

no way.. he is not far more charismatic and he is NOT liked.. you're just not doing your homework dude.. he barely got reelected! go check out the results

dude I love you but its like you don't know what you're talking about

http://augustafreepress.com/toocloseforcomfort-mark-warner-wins-senate-re-election-razor-thin-margin/


he BARELY won in an election where the Republican money abandoned Gillespie cause they thought he could not win!

How can you not remember this? were you not in VA?

le wrote:
yes PA has gone blue for a long time.. but VA and FL have far more hispanics coming in… also VA and FL have less of a "rust belty" feel to them…. the western half of PA might as well be OH.. also VA and FL- don't quote me on this- have had pretty dynamic job pictures.. how is PA doing?

at this point - at least in the polls for whatever they're worth- HRC lead in VA and FL is nearly double that in PA…

I suppose it's possible Hillary wins VA and FL and loses PA but I'd put the odds on at that around 5%. It would take a weird confluence of events.

But I maintain wins in FL and VA portend well in NH, AZ, CO, NV (and to a lesser extent NC and MO) and it would be virtually impossible for her to take those and strike out on ALL the other swing states and not win. Which, again, you obviously agree with.

Julian, wrote:

le wrote:
yes PA has gone blue for a long time.. but VA and FL have far more hispanics coming in… also VA and FL have less of a "rust belty" feel to them…. the western half of PA might as well be OH.. also VA and FL- don't quote me on this- have had pretty dynamic job pictures.. how is PA doing?

at this point - at least in the polls for whatever they're worth- HRC lead in VA and FL is nearly double that in PA…

I suppose it's possible Hillary wins VA and FL and loses PA but I'd put the odds on at that around 5%. It would take a weird confluence of events.

But I maintain wins in FL and VA portend well in NH, AZ, CO, NV (and to a lesser extent NC and MO) and it would be virtually impossible for her to take those and strike out on ALL the other swing states and not win. Which, again, you obviously agree with.

yes I agree…  she is in a great position.. she should wipe the floor with him in the debates.. barring any unforeseen issues she should win comfortably..

I'm upping my forecast to 80% odds Hillary wins…. I started with 66%…..

also jobs jobs jobs.. the 300,000 jobs created in June.. big….. in an ideal world the Fed does not hike interest rates.. stock markets keeps going up… economy lets say creates another million jobs (maybe 700K if cautious)…


its just hard to imagine her losing in this scenario…..

le wrote:

Julian, wrote:

le wrote:
as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

no way.. he is not far more charismatic and he is NOT liked.. you're just not doing your homework dude.. he barely got reelected! go check out the results

dude I love you but its like you don't know what you're talking about

http://augustafreepress.com/toocloseforcomfort-mark-warner-wins-senate-re-election-razor-thin-margin/


he BARELY won in an election where the Republican money abandoned Gillespie cause they thought he could not win!

How can you not remember this? were you not in VA?

That election as a whole was a bloodbath for Democrats. Things were not trending well for Dems as a whole and that hurt Warner. Look at his whole tenure. He left the governorship with a 70+% approval rating after a tenure hanging around 80%. He won in '08 with 65% of the vote. I get you don't like the guy (which is fine, I'm not a Mark Warner fanboy) but to act like he's not the most liked (current) politician in the state of Virginia is absurd.

Julian, wrote:

le wrote:

Julian, wrote:

le wrote:
as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

no way.. he is not far more charismatic and he is NOT liked.. you're just not doing your homework dude.. he barely got reelected! go check out the results

dude I love you but its like you don't know what you're talking about

http://augustafreepress.com/toocloseforcomfort-mark-warner-wins-senate-re-election-razor-thin-margin/


he BARELY won in an election where the Republican money abandoned Gillespie cause they thought he could not win!

How can you not remember this? were you not in VA?

That election as a whole was a bloodbath for Democrats. Things were not trending well for Dems as a whole and that hurt Warner. Look at his whole tenure. He left the governorship with a 70+% approval rating after a tenure hanging around 80%. He won in '08 with 65% of the vote. I get you don't like the guy (which is fine, I'm not a Mark Warner fanboy) but to act like he's not the most liked (current) politician in the state of Virginia is absurd.

it was a bloodbath. that is true…

but Gillespie was a pretty weak candidate.. I think Warner's stock has dropped more than you acknowledge.. he went from being a VP candidate to struggling to keep his job…. the State is changing… VA elected Mcauliffe (sic) for pete's sake…even if grudgingly…

-30- (I'm trying this out.)

le wrote:
I think Warner's stock has dropped more than you acknowledge.. he went from being a VP candidate to struggling to keep his job….

I agree it dropped. I also maintain if he decided he wanted the governorship back next year, he wins with 60+% of vote and the Republicans run a Creigh-Deeds-esque lamb to the slaughter candidate against him.

le wrote:.. practically a Republican.. .

well that's why he'd pull the independents
but Mark Warner is a Centrist.

still pretty left for your standard GOP'er
Support Roe v. Wade,
Switched to supporting same-sex marriage in 2013. (Jul 2014)
Supports  affirmative action,
Eliminated Family Rule, so unrelated couples can buy homes.
End racial profiling; more minority police.
Extend hate crimes to include sexual orientation
Voted YES on reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act.
No school prayer amendment
Mandatory arrest upon evidence of domestic violence. (Nov 2001)
More funding & services for victims of domestic violence
Voted YES on providing a US House seat for the District of Columbia.
Supports line-item veto

this may not be liberal, but I support this:
Voted YES on instituting National Service as a new social invention


Reasons I don't love him
he is a fiscal conservative( but he did close the largest budget shortfall in Virginia?s history. ( 2004) )
supports 'fair' death penalty?
in 96 he Increase penalties for illegal drugs
Strong defender of the Second Amendment.
Voted NO on banning high-capacity magazines of over 10 bullets


I wouldn't say I hate free trade like you keep spewing
but Warner Supports NAFTA, GATT, and WTO

A body-language expert would have a field day with that awkward as fuck Bernie Sanders/Hillary Clinton joint event/endorsement announcement.

Julian, wrote:
Bernie Sanders/Hillary Clinton joint

they really should have shared one prior to taking the stage

GOP Speaker list:


Supposedly one entire day will be based around Benghazi. Mixed feelings on Brock Mealer being on there. Tim Tebow is the most Trump GOP Convention thing ever and I now list Tebow at 9-1 odds as the VP.

i'm not seeing tebow there… am i missing something?

trump has got his 4 kids speaking along with his wife.  truly a family business.

sweetcell wrote:
i'm not seeing tebow there… am i missing something?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us/politics/republican-convention-speakers-donald-trump.html

sweetcell wrote:
trump has got his 4 kids speaking along with his wife.  truly a family business.

Gotta promote the Trump brand above all else.


Interesting for those following Veepstakes that Pence is not mentioned on any speaker list.

Julian, wrote:
Interesting for those following Veepstakes that Pence is not mentioned on any speaker list.

Politico is reporting Pence's re-election campaign (for Governor of Indiana) has just bought ad time in August. Starting to look like he's out of the Veepstakes, but this could all be misdirection, I suppose.

its tough to say…. Pence is definitely the media/establishment/conservative appeal pick.. but is it the Trump pick? It seems almost too conventional and boring..

We should know within 24 hours…

I have to say 95% of Americans have never heard of him until now…

I thought that when Christie endorsed him so early maybe they had worked something out and he would be the VP.. I mean Christie endorsing him was a big deal…. Bill Kristol who tends to get everything wrong is picking Christie as the choice so that probably means he is a no go…

I'm rooting for Gingrich or Christie.. I think they both carry big negatives that could be exploited….

but based on what I hear I am thinking it will be Pence…. having his family fly out to Indiana and have dinner and breakfast with him seems like a big clue…. also you know Manafort is doing everything he can to get Pence….

Personally I find Pence a fairly underwhelming choice… and if I was in Trump's shoes I would probably pick Gingrich (that is not to say I like Newt…)

Also its not a given Pence would take the gig.. he's pretty much guaranteed to be the next Gov of Indiana.. he has to know Trump's chances are not that good…

I think of Trump and how he probably thinks: he might be thinking.. look-y my polls are up.. I don't need to do what they are telling me to do (pick Pence)… I can do whatever I want….

According to Politico, Trump's actual staffers want Pence while Trump wants more of an attack dog like Christie or Newt. Staffers feel Newt will be particularly difficult to keep on message.

There's also the subplot that Trump's son-in-law is pretty much the de facto campaign manager at this point and his dad was prosecuted by Christie so there's some bad blood there.

I also thought it was Pence up until he was left off the GOP speaker list (which, again, could be misdirection) while Newt and Christie are both scheduled for day 3 (the traditional VP speech day). That alone could've been construed either way but you combine it with Pence buying re-election airspace this morning and it makes me think Pence has been told it won't be him.

Trump has said we'll know tomorrow. If I had to guess, I'd say its Christie. Current Julian Odds:

Christie 3-1
Newt 4-1
Pence 8-1
Tebow 9-1
Sessions 20-1
Field 50-1