OK - it's time for a smackie election prediction.
No, not the US election, that one's too easy because there are rules and procedures and monitors and a formidable constitution.
I'm talking about the big election in Pakistan on Monday.
So here are the early Polls:
</font>
- <font size="2" face="Arial, Veranda">50% said they would vote for the PPP (Bhutto's Party now being run by her widower, Asif Zardari</font></li>
- <font size="2" face="Arial, Veranda">22% said they would vote for PML(N) led by Nawaz Sharif</font></li>
- <font size="2" face="Arial, Veranda">14% said they will vote for PML(Q), led by incumbent President Pervez Musharraf</font></li>
<font size="2" face="Arial, Veranda">
Well, that's a clear cut victory for the PPP, right? Not so much. Depsite slipping approval ratings (currently at about 15%), the longer this election took to happen, the more time President Musharraf had to rig the election. So much effort was put into rigging this election that the largest group that monitors the election has pulled out citing a prohibition Musharraf put on exit polling and a fear for their safety.
What is needed is a two-thirds majority for PPP and PLM-N to overturn all the Constitutional changes Musharraf made to maintain power, and all the polls indicate this will happen.
But the reality is it won't happen. There will be violence on Monday, and that will be cited for "discrepancies" in the election process. The turnout will officially be declared lower than what the PPP and PLM-N will argue were the actual numbers, and Musharraf will delcare himself the winner (with the help of his spies, of course).
If you think the election upheval in Kenya is bad - wait until Tuesday morning. I'd love to be wrong on this one, but Democracy in Pakistan is still a pipe dream.