COVID-19 2020

And in a recently published study, the virus sticks on surfaces longer than SARS:

Abstract

HCoV-19 (SARS-2) has caused >88,000 reported illnesses with a current case-fatality ratio of ~2%. Here, we investigate the stability of viable HCoV-19 on surfaces and in aerosols in comparison with SARS CoV-1. Overall, stability is very similar between HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1. We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on polypropylene. Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.

hutch wrote:
It is obvious it spreads really easily and is very deadly

I'm not sure "very deadly" is totally accurate.

Welll didn’t 21 people or something die in one nursing home in Washington?

I know they were old but…

Julian, wrote:

hutch wrote:
It is obvious it spreads really easily and is very deadly

I'm not sure "very deadly" is totally accurate.

"situationally, quite lethal."

I mean, if I'm just playing armchair epidemiologist, Ebola has a like 90% mortality rate. That is very deadly. SARS I think is at like 11%.

It is my understanding COVID-19 has a mortality rate of around 3% and a mortality rate of 0.7% outside of Wuhan (i.e. once it was identified and doctors had some idea what they were treating). This is not an instant death sentence. If 0.7% turns up to be an accurate number (and honestly, we really won't know until we are looking back on this thing with more data), that's a really awful flu on steroids. Even if the number gets as high as 2-3%, yes, this is a big time deal but I'm not sure "very deadly" in the context of other horrible viruses is accurate.

IDK

Ok I can agree with you..I stand corrected


Guess if it spreads so easily that in a sense “amplifies” the death impact

I still wonder about that nursing home…

hutch wrote:
Guess if it spreads so easily that in a sense “amplifies” the death impact

I still wonder about that nursing home…

Yeah, obviously 1% of a huge population is more than 11% of a much smaller group. Not wanting to give the impression this is a non-event for sure.

the university i work for is going to telework starting this weekend.  while mandatory quarantine would be great, people won't follow it. In Iceland, they had something like 30 cases that came in from people returning from a trip in italy.  All of them were told to stay at home.  Several did not and now they are up to over 100 cases and have community spread.  Interestingly they found 3 travelers inbound from the USA to have brought it into iceland as well.  It is spreading way more than just the official count at this point.

anyway, from having lived in baltimore during the uprising, where we had a curfew - I can tell you….people will defy it all.  but a good piont is, even if some people defy it, the people staying at home should help lesson the burden at hospitals.  I have been reading that you should only go to a hospital if you have high fever that doesn't break and/or trouble breathing.  Otherwise, stay at home and don't interact with anyone for at least 14 days after being sick.

Julian, wrote:
I mean, if I'm just playing armchair epidemiologist, Ebola has a like 90% mortality rate. That is very deadly. SARS I think is at like 11%.

It is my understanding COVID-19 has a mortality rate of around 3% and a mortality rate of 0.7% outside of Wuhan (i.e. once it was identified and doctors had some idea what they were treating). This is not an instant death sentence. If 0.7% turns up to be an accurate number (and honestly, we really won't know until we are looking back on this thing with more data), that's a really awful flu on steroids. Even if the number gets as high as 2-3%, yes, this is a big time deal but I'm not sure "very deadly" in the context of other horrible viruses is accurate.

IDK

The seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%.  If (and when?) the number of people who contract the coronavirus matches the number who get the flu, and if the mortality rate stays the same, somewhere between 6 and 10 million people will die.

1st case of community transmission in MD.

All
Maryland
Public Schools
Closed

this seems like a good plan

President Trump will not be tested for the coronavirus after coming into contact with a Brazilian official who tested positive for the virus just days after a Mar-a-Lago visit, the White House said on Thursday
https://nyti.ms/3cSKy3t

Justin wrote:
March Madness attendance to be limited

And now canceled.

I bet he is tested daily and they tell us he is not…


Dow Jones lost 10% today

When Black Thursday comes

Not even sure this is worthy of the onion thread.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/11/814550474/missouri-sues-televangelist-jim-bakker-for-selling-fake-coronavirus-cure

sweetcell wrote:

sweetcell wrote:
local headline: Seattle Public Schools to close for at least two weeks in light of coronavirus concerns

my kiddos are in a different school district, but it's coming to us eventually.  yeay.

just got notification that my school district will be closing as well, per the instructions of the governor.  yeay indeed.

"FROM: Snoqualmie Valley School District
TO: Daddy Sweetcell

Dear Snoqualmie Valley Families,

In light of recent information shared by our elected officials and public health agencies, we are informing all families that Snoqualmie Valley schools will be  closed starting tomorrow, Friday, March 13. At this time, the closure will extend through Friday, April 24.

(etc…)"

6 unplanned weeks of the kids at home, if not more, starting tomorrow.  yeay indeed.

sweetcell wrote:

sweetcell wrote:

sweetcell wrote:
local headline: Seattle Public Schools to close for at least two weeks in light of coronavirus concerns

my kiddos are in a different school district, but it's coming to us eventually.  yeay.

just got notification that my school district will be closing as well, per the instructions of the governor.  yeay indeed.

"FROM: Snoqualmie Valley School District
TO: Daddy Sweetcell

Dear Snoqualmie Valley Families,

In light of recent information shared by our elected officials and public health agencies, we are informing all families that Snoqualmie Valley schools will be  closed starting tomorrow, Friday, March 13. At this time, the closure will extend through Friday, April 24.

(etc…)"

6 unplanned weeks of the kids at home, if not more, starting tomorrow.  yeay indeed.

Are they going to do things online?

Space wrote:

sweetcell wrote:
"FROM: Snoqualmie Valley School District
TO: Daddy Sweetcell

Dear Snoqualmie Valley Families,

In light of recent information shared by our elected officials and public health agencies, we are informing all families that Snoqualmie Valley schools will be  closed starting tomorrow, Friday, March 13. At this time, the closure will extend through Friday, April 24.

(etc…)"

6 unplanned weeks of the kids at home, if not more, starting tomorrow.  yeay indeed.

Are they going to do things online?

nope, at least not yet.  nothing is currently set up and there are some access/equity issues - not every family has internet, computers, etc.  the school board & teachers are going to spend the next 6 weeks to create and implement an online learning program.  and the concern isn't this year, the main driver is fear that the virus will be back in the fall.  they're thinking long term: this year may end up being a write-off, but they want to be prepared for 2020-2021.

Fairfax County parents seem to be unanimously livid that school is happening tomorrow.

I am pissed off they have school in Arlington


I want to keep them home but their mother insists on sending them