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COVID-19 2020

Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 11:36 AM UTC #
Space wrote:
Fairfax County parents seem to be unanimously livid that school is happening tomorrow.


They ended up cancelling. Monday, teachers are going to be trained for one day in distance learning. Who knows what happens after that. Nobody has said anything.

Hutch, you have my approval to keep the kids home today. Just don't send them to my house.
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 12:09 PM UTC #
It's 8am and I've been up working for an hour. She's been out of bed for less than five minutes and is already bitching about messes. This co-telework thing with no school is not going to go well. :(
Yada
Joined: February 05, 2003 at 06:01 AM UTC
Posts: 12418
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:33 PM UTC #
Space wrote:
It's 8am and I've been up working for an hour. She's been out of bed for less than five minutes and is already bitching about messes. This co-telework thing with no school is not going to go well. :(


https://forum.930.com/index.php?topic=25143.msg497907#msg497907
kosmo
Joined: September 23, 1999 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 16329
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:33 PM UTC #
Right on cue it’s  all Obama’s fault for the CDC response… here’s hoping Obama finally takes on this menace in the WH head on
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:43 PM UTC #
Yada wrote:
Space wrote:
It's 8am and I've been up working for an hour. She's been out of bed for less than five minutes and is already bitching about messes. This co-telework thing with no school is not going to go well. :(


https://forum.930.com/index.php?topic=25143.msg497907#msg497907


Today is not the sexy day you thought it would be.

I did find a spot in the house where I won't be bothered. Woohoo.

As Howard Jones used to day, things can only get better…
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:46 PM UTC #
If most of us are going to get the virus, wouldn't it be better to get it earlier than later, especially if you only get it once?

I mean, the younger you are, the better. No better time than now.

And might as well get it now, before the hospitals are overrun.

I wish I was 25 not 52.

Do we  basically have to turn off our lives and live like hermits until a vaccine is developed and put into use?
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:53 PM UTC #
But according to something I read the virus may mutate and come back stronger…this is apparently what happened in 1918 with influenza

The guy who ran Obamacare tweeted 1 million Americans will die…I could not believe it…not only the number but that he would tweet that out
grateful
Joined: October 15, 2008 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 11564
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:56 PM UTC #
Roughly speaking, if 50% of Americans are infected (possible?) and the fatality rate is 1% (possible!), 1.6 million people will die.
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:58 PM UTC #
I hear you but that’s insane

Do we really think half of Americans will get it?
Yada
Joined: February 05, 2003 at 06:01 AM UTC
Posts: 12418
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 01:59 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
I hear you but that’s insane

Do we really think half of Americans will get it?


Wouldn't be surprised… but I think also there's a big difference between "getting it" and getting sick… I think many people will get it and you won't know it or will have very minor symptoms.
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 02:08 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
I hear you but that’s insane

Do we really think half of Americans will get it?


Angela Merkel said 70% of Germans will get it. She's probably no more of an infectious disease expert than I am but she probably has better firsthand  sources than I do.
grateful
Joined: October 15, 2008 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 11564
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 02:09 PM UTC #
A few factors to consider:

Community transmission is a big big deal.  The virus is in the wild, and you can get it without knowing how or where you got it from.  Hogan announced yesterday that this has already begun to happen in Maryland, and that is why schools are closed.

You are contagious before you feel sick. This means that testing is a trailing indicator of how many people you have already infected.  Testing doesn't help prevent the spread of the disease, and since we don't have a cure, it doesn't really inform treatment.

There is a good chance that the virus will wane over the summer, will mutate slightly and will come back like gangbusters next fall and winter.  The seasonal flu does this. The common cold does this. The Spanish flu (1918) did this, but the second wave was far more deadly than the first. They think that the people who got sick during the first wave of Spanish flu were conferred some immunity to the second wave.

80% of the infected will recover with minor to moderate symptoms.  20% will have major symptoms requiring medical intervention or hospitalization.  1% will die.  These numbers have been fairly consistent over time, and correcting for outliers.
grateful
Joined: October 15, 2008 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 11564
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 02:12 PM UTC #
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 02:27 PM UTC #
Heilung4eva wrote:
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.


There are nearly 3 million deaths in the United States per year. I guess the question is what percent of that 660K or 1.5 million or whatever were people who were going to die anyway?
jrpa
Joined: September 03, 2013 at 03:15 PM UTC
Posts: 29999
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 02:31 PM UTC #
Heilung4eva wrote:
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.
I don’t get out of bed for less than a million deaths.
grateful
Joined: October 15, 2008 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 11564
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 02:33 PM UTC #
Space wrote:
Heilung4eva wrote:
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.


There are nearly 3 million deaths in the United States per year. I guess the question is what percent of that 660K or 1.5 million or whatever were people who were going to die anyway?


This would be on top of the "background deaths" you cite.
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 03:13 PM UTC #
Heilung I forget but you work in public health?

Good stuff..thanks
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 03:45 PM UTC #
My Trump voting, Fox News watching in-laws claim they don't have the virus because they can still hold their breath and count to 10.

Isn't that really the only test you need?
grateful
Joined: October 15, 2008 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 11564
Re: COVID-19 2020 March 13, 2020 at 03:52 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Heilung I forget but you work in public health?

Good stuff..thanks


I dont. But I'm highly selective about where I get my info.  This is a great source. Sign up for their situation reports!

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/index.html
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