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The 2020 thread....

hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 10, 2020 at 07:22 PM UTC #
what J said


Democrats should focus time, $ and energy on the flippable seats


We all hate Mitch but he is going to cruise to reelection

Trust me Mitch ain’t shaking
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 10, 2020 at 07:28 PM UTC #
also that same poll (from may 21-24) had trump with a +17 for Trump
https://www.termlimits.com/mcgrath/

So pretty sure only KY that Dems will have is Jelly
Beshear did win the Gov as a dem….with a razor-thin margin on an off-year


Just learned that McGrath doesn't even have a lock on the dem nomination for that seat
as Booker just got an endorsement from Sanders, AOC and others
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a32815217/kentucky-senate-democrats-amy-mcgrath-charles-booker/
gavroche
Joined: February 03, 2013 at 11:51 PM UTC
Posts: 512
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 10, 2020 at 08:06 PM UTC #
Heilung4eva wrote:
I just heard if the Senate flips, Bernie would be the head of the Budget Committee….interesting


The budget committee is pretty useless, except for reconciliation instructions.
jrpa
Joined: September 03, 2013 at 03:15 PM UTC
Posts: 29999
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 10, 2020 at 09:25 PM UTC #
Magnificent wrote:
also that same poll (from may 21-24) had trump with a +17 for Trump
https://www.termlimits.com/mcgrath/

So pretty sure only KY that Dems will have is Jelly
Beshear did win the Gov as a dem….with a razor-thin margin on an off-year


Just learned that McGrath doesn't even have a lock on the dem nomination for that seat
as Booker just got an endorsement from Sanders, AOC and others
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a32815217/kentucky-senate-democrats-amy-mcgrath-charles-booker/
Correct - McGrath is far from a lock.
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 11, 2020 at 02:58 AM UTC #
although now Jon Ossof is a lock by breaking the 50% threshold in Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary in Georgia
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 12, 2020 at 10:21 PM UTC #
^wishful thinking


It doesn’t matter a whit
sweetcell
Joined: July 18, 2006 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 22608
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 12, 2020 at 11:26 PM UTC #
absolutely, it will have little to no material impact.

however, it makes them look stupid(er) and will be great fodder for late-night hosts.
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 15, 2020 at 08:38 PM UTC #
Stupid
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 15, 2020 at 08:59 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Stupid

I know you are but what am I
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 15, 2020 at 09:21 PM UTC #
Obviously everyone should do their part to make sure Biden wins as resounding a victory as possible.
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 15, 2020 at 09:26 PM UTC #
well my point was in June 2016, everyone was citing polls that Hill was crushing
Just this week saw a number of pollsters talking the same way

I think people are motivated and energized to vote I just hope it stays that way

I really think there needs to be some movement in the states to get Vote By Mail stuff passed ASAP
You don't need the federal Gov't…it's a states thing

as the GOP will take it to court, so you need a little time to play that game
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 15, 2020 at 09:39 PM UTC #
20 more weeks of this…141 days to nov 3rd
I really hope we take the senate too
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 17, 2020 at 11:12 AM UTC #
I'm a little shocked that Trumps approval rating avg on 538 is still in the 40s

He was in the 36-37 around the Comey firing in May 2017
He was around 39 during the gov't shutdown

I know it's unlikely that he'll go below 35 even if he shoots someone on 5th ave
I would have thought it would have been lower considering the last 4 weeks/4 months

He does look like he's getting it where it hurts in the swing states
Biden…has an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…which is all that really matters

Alas, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people


sweetcell wrote:
‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.

Also, if you ask the top brass at the GOP "is trump going to win" for a news article that will appear in politico, of course, they are going to say "we are going to win in a landslide" and not have to back it up with actual facts
kosmo
Joined: September 23, 1999 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 16329
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 17, 2020 at 11:37 AM UTC #
heretofore-hatch wrote:
Alas, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people




So much truth in this, given the fact that some feel being asked/required to wear a  mask is unconstitutional…
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 17, 2020 at 11:58 AM UTC #
kosmo wrote:
some feel being asked/required to wear a  mask is unconstitutional…


kosmo
Joined: September 23, 1999 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 16329
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 17, 2020 at 12:01 PM UTC #
heretofore-hatch wrote:
kosmo wrote:
some feel being asked/required to wear a  mask is unconstitutional…



The GIF game is very strong here…

jrpa
Joined: September 03, 2013 at 03:15 PM UTC
Posts: 29999
Re: The 2020 thread.... June 17, 2020 at 01:49 PM UTC #
heretofore-hatch wrote:
I'm a little shocked that Trumps approval rating avg on 538 is still in the 40s

He was in the 36-37 around the Comey firing in May 2017
He was around 39 during the gov't shutdown

I know it's unlikely that he'll go below 35 even if he shoots someone on 5th ave
I would have thought it would have been lower considering the last 4 weeks/4 months

He does look like he's getting it where it hurts in the swing states
Biden…has an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…which is all that really matters

Alas, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people


sweetcell wrote:
‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.

Also, if you ask the top brass at the GOP "is trump going to win" for a news article that will appear in politico, of course, they are going to say "we are going to win in a landslide" and not have to back it up with actual facts
I think one of the important distinctions is polling of likely voters shows over 50+% very likely voting for Biden — a mark Hillary never got over. It is super hard to get people to change their mind once it’s made up, a reason Trumps approva rating floor is so high, but also a giant concern for him because that 50+% consistent figure for Biden gives him a very narrow electoral needle to thread to victory. Much more narrow than the one in 2016.
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