The 2020 thread....

also…must say I'm liking Warren's  "Green Manufacturing Plan"
gonna cost a lot of bacon tho…but it really would be the kind of investments the Gov't should be making

The three elements of Warren's plan include…

    Green Apollo Program:
Focused on clean energy manufacturing, the program would invest $400 billion in funding toward "clean energy research and development."
    Green Industrial Mobilization:
A $1.5 trillion investment to purchase "American-made clean, renewable, and emission-free energy products for federal, state, and local use, and for export."
    Green Marshall Plan:
A new federal office focused on selling green, American-made products abroad that calls for $100 billion in investment towards "assisting countries to purchase and deploy this technology."

now this shit is getting real
Chipotle may raise burrito prices

I'm starting to agree with this line of thought
Beto, Hickenlooper and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock should run for Senate instead of continuing to pursue presidential ambitions.

The filing deadline in Texas  Dec. 9, meaning a decision will have to come just under two months prior to the Iowa caucuses.
Colorado and Montana, the deadlines in both states occur after Super Tuesday,

there would still be 20 candidates running!

Who would Beto lose to this time?

Space wrote:
Who would Beto lose to this time?

John Cornyn

And he did lose, but was a nail biter for a state that is DEEP Red

Ted Cruz  4,260,553 50.89%
Beto O'Rourke 4,045,632 48.33%

200k in 8mill is pretty close

now he's got the name recognition too
So I think he has a better chance at being a senator than being the next Dem

Yeah, it's staggering to me that Beto took this leap. I'm sure he had a lot of establishment folks in his ear about it (I think those Pod Save dip shits really backed him…their production company even produced that Running with Beto thing on HBO), but to blindly assume the momentum of running against a toad like Cruz would translate to a presidential run seems like such a bad miscalculation.

Is wrote:

Space wrote:
Who would Beto lose to this time?

John Cornyn

And he did lose, but was a nail biter for a state that is DEEP Red

Ted Cruz  4,260,553 50.89%
Beto O'Rourke 4,045,632 48.33%

200k in 8mill is pretty close

now he's got the name recognition too
So I think he has a better chance at being a senator than being the next Dem

nkotb wrote:
Yeah, it's staggering to me that Beto took this leap. I'm sure he had a lot of establishment folks in his ear about it (I think those Pod Save dip shits really backed him…their production company even produced that Running with Beto thing on HBO), but to blindly assume the momentum of running against a toad like Cruz would translate to a presidential run seems like such a bad miscalculation.

He did raise a Significant amount of money from outside of texas (like $25Mil)
My mom (FL/NY) and I know an number of people here in the DC are who supported his senate run

Now mostly because they hate Cruz, but he's got the kind of charisma we need in a presidential candidate

But I think he should WIN a senate seat first or Govnership…then run in 2028 or 2032

Beto isn't really my cup of tea (he's all style and zero substance IMO), but obviously I'd support him against Cruz. You couldn't ask for a better race to gain national attention…young, good-looking, punk rock-loving dude clearly ripping off Obama vs. loathsome melted gargoyle.  It's not wonder everyone was invested in him.

But transitioning immediately from a loss to a presidential run seems like it would only hurt you long-term, where as staying local and winning would just build the brand.

Is wrote:

nkotb wrote:
Yeah, it's staggering to me that Beto took this leap. I'm sure he had a lot of establishment folks in his ear about it (I think those Pod Save dip shits really backed him…their production company even produced that Running with Beto thing on HBO), but to blindly assume the momentum of running against a toad like Cruz would translate to a presidential run seems like such a bad miscalculation.

He did raise a Significant amount of money from outside of texas (like $25Mil)
My mom (FL/NY) and I know an number of people here in the DC are who supported his senate run

Now mostly because they hate Cruz, but he's got the kind of charisma we need in a presidential candidate

But I think he should WIN a senate seat first or Govnership…then run in 2028 or 2032

sounds like we agree….

nkotb wrote:
(he's all style and zero substance IMO),

It worked for Barack Obama.

Yep

Is wrote:
sounds like we agree….

Also agree

Julian, wrote:

nkotb wrote:
(he's all style and zero substance IMO),

It worked for Barack Obama.

nkotb wrote:
Beto isn't really my cup of tea (he's all style and zero substance IMO), but obviously I'd support him against Cruz. You couldn't ask for a better race to gain national attention…young, good-looking, punk rock-loving dude clearly ripping off Obama vs. loathsome melted gargoyle.  It's not wonder everyone was invested in him.

But transitioning immediately from a loss to a presidential run seems like it would only hurt you long-term, where as staying local and winning would just build the brand.

Is wrote:

nkotb wrote:
Yeah, it's staggering to me that Beto took this leap. I'm sure he had a lot of establishment folks in his ear about it (I think those Pod Save dip shits really backed him…their production company even produced that Running with Beto thing on HBO), but to blindly assume the momentum of running against a toad like Cruz would translate to a presidential run seems like such a bad miscalculation.

He did raise a Significant amount of money from outside of texas (like $25Mil)
My mom (FL/NY) and I know an number of people here in the DC are who supported his senate run

Now mostly because they hate Cruz, but he's got the kind of charisma we need in a presidential candidate

But I think he should WIN a senate seat first or Govnership…then run in 2028 or 2032

Problem for Beto is that he is from Texas and so he has nowhere local to go.  The Ted Cruz race was his best chance to win statewide.  Everyone hates Ted Cruz (even his Republican colleagues).  He raised a ton of money in 2018,  but coming off a loss and in a Presidential race he's not going to get the same support.  Plus the longer he's in government the more he gets defined and the more he angers people.  I feel like his moment is now or never (and it just might be never).

100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

gavroche wrote:
Problem for Beto is that he is from Texas and so he has nowhere local to go.  The Ted Cruz race was his best chance to win statewide.  Everyone hates Ted Cruz (even his Republican colleagues).  He raised a ton of money in 2018,  but coming off a loss and in a Presidential race he's not going to get the same support.  Plus the longer he's in government the more he gets defined and the more he angers people.  I feel like his moment is now or never (and it just might be never).

which is an easier win?
Cruz v Beto 2016
v
Cornyn v Beto 2020

I think he has a chance with Cornyn…nation wide Cruz is despised, but obviously has some support in TX
I don't know enough about TX or Cornyn to know if this is a good idea or not
sucks he has to decide by Dec 9th…that's the issue here

Also MJ Hegar, female Air Force helicopter pilot and combat Vet is already running and getting some attention…especially from the DNC

would love to get a dem in texas…but there's this
Democrats have not won statewide in Texas in 25 years.

Julian, wrote:
100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

Front a Ramones cover band while wearing a onesie and a sheep mask.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hV7h1DuotU

Space wrote:

Julian, wrote:
100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

Front a Ramones cover band while wearing a onesie and a sheep mask.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hV7h1DuotU

at least he's got a plan B if this politics thing doesn't work out

abeyance-hatch wrote:

Space wrote:

Julian, wrote:
100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

Front a Ramones cover band while wearing a onesie and a sheep mask.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hV7h1DuotU

at least he's got a plan B if this politics thing doesn't work out

Live off his wife's money like a true punk rocker.

Are we catching up on our weekend Economist reading in this thread?

The Senate, the Senate
Democrats running for president are selling plans to transform America
The Senate is likely to render them mere pipe-dreams

abeyance-hatch wrote:
Democrats have not won statewide in Texas in 25 years.

True.  But they did pick up 2 state Senate seats and 12 seats in the State House in a midterm election where turnout generally favors Republicans.

vansmack wrote:
Are we catching up on our weekend Economist reading in this thread?

I've become a full-on Axios junkie
I do think I need to fit Economist in there more (although $220 a year for the digital sub is making me think I won't be reading much)

heard this woman talk the other day and this sounds interesting

vansmack wrote:
Are we catching up on our weekend Economist reading in this thread?

The Senate, the Senate
Democrats running for president are selling plans to transform America
The Senate is likely to render them mere pipe-dreams

abeyance-hatch wrote:
Democrats have not won statewide in Texas in 25 years.

True.  But they did pick up 2 state Senate seats and 12 seats in the State House in a midterm election where turnout generally favors Republicans.

This analysis really depends on what you think happened in 2018 and what it means for 2020.  Was 2018 a normal midterm and so we should expect Dems to do better in 2020?  Did Trump energize both bases and so you should expect similar patterns in 2020?  Or will Trump being on the ballot actually increase R turnout in 2020, thus making it harder for Dems to win state wise? 

My sense is that Trump being on the ballot will help R's in Texas in 2020; but that's just my gut.


It also depends a bit on what you think is more telling.  Cornyn has lower positives and lower negatives than Cruz.  Is it better or worse to have everyone already locked in on you?  My sense is that Cornyn is a stronger candidate than Cruz… but you can credibly make both arguments.