The 2020 thread....

Kind of amazing

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/bidens-big-lead-in-the-polls-could-be-partly-behind-markets-drop-and-may-lead-to-more-weakness.html

Interesting

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-adds-congressional-black-caucus-e2-80-99s-karen-bass-to-vp-list/ar-BB15V8tQ


A trial 🎈?

hutch wrote:
Kind of amazing

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/bidens-big-lead-in-the-polls-could-be-partly-behind-markets-drop-and-may-lead-to-more-weakness.html

"Biden’s big lead in the polls could be partly behind market’s drop"… or it might not.  gawd this stuff drives me insaner.

first off, the stock market is no the economy, in fact it's clearly decoupled.

second, unless it's a clear, undeniable signal - like a war, natural disaster, etc. - tying a piece of news to the stock market's one-day performance is either guesswork or spin.  a case in point: i read several articles today on the same topic with very different conclusions.  many attributed today's movement in the stock market to the resurgence of the coronovirus, while another discussed how concern over November's results are not affecting the stock markets at all.

Here’s why stock-market distress over spiking coronavirus cases is intensifying
Coronavirus Surge Raises Alarm as States Report New Highs (scroll down about 2/3)
The stock market no longer cares whether Trump wins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/showing-strength-with-white-voters-biden-builds-lead-in-battleground-states/ar-BB15WSW0


FWIW Nate Silver gives the polling outfit above- Siena- an A+ rating with 0.3% Republican lean

i was going to post the latest word salad from he should be removed from the white house, but it just makes my head hurt even more thinking about it… oh hell here it is… but her emails…


Daniel Dale
@ddale8

Here's the transcript of Trump's response when he was asked what are his top priorities for a second term.
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1276341601632206848?s=20

Good news for the Warrenites


https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/politics/joe-biden-running-mate/index.html

should we just ignore this stuff and act like it's the opposite

I really hope that voter turnout is insane in Nov…all about the suppression of vote that we need to keep an eye on

Better than polls read this


http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-pennsylvania/



When I say Trump is going down I never mean we can stop fighting or even worrying

Lobster-hatch wrote:
should we just ignore this stuff and act like it's the opposite

remind me, how did that work out 4 years ago?  oh wait…

sweetcell wrote:

Lobster-hatch wrote:
should we just ignore this stuff and act like it's the opposite

remind me, how did that work out 4 years ago?  oh wait…

I do think it was different 4 years ago
we were still in Obama bliss (even though mitch tried his hardest to rain on that parade for 6 years)
economy and unemployment were rocking

Songs like "work from home" (ha, kinda funny now) were playing all the time
Drake and the Chainsmokers ruled the airwaves

We had no idea what was in store with Trump (well, Hillary knew!)
Lots of the undecided voters were like "Let's take a chance on Trump…how bad could it be"

I just don't think there will be 'take a chance' voters anymore.  You either think he walks on water or is the most vile person alive.
I don't think there is a big undecided block this election (will wait to hear more about this)



I'm also thinking more and more there was some major hanky panky in the election results
Possibly why his 'election review committee' was disbanded (not because they didn't find stuff…but that they started to get close to finding stuff)
But that sucks and is exactly what the GOP and Putin want…for us not to trust our elections!

Sucks, because the Dem should just be able to win by squeaking out 270 EC votes
but if it's close there will be questions

so it's got to be a massive upset (hopefully that will change the outlook of congress by proxy too)
Fear is Biden could actually get 6 million more votes and lose the EC
God that would be a disaster and even worse the GOP would be like "seems totally fair to me"

hutch wrote:
And whether you like him or not Roberts (and RBG hanging on) are probably the only thing standing between us and a full fledged totalitarian fascist state.


So spare me the whining about how you don’t like this Roberts vote or that..we all wish he was more liberal but he was appointed by a Republican president..have you seen the other conservative justices????

not sure I would have predicted Chief Justice John Roberts as the lynchpin to keeping the US together
I'm sure there are some pissed off Federalist Society donors right now

Trump may try to increase the court just so he can make sure it's stacked against Roberts conscience



Not sure how to read this…but seems good as the CFPB is kept in place
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is unconstitutional because the agency is led by one director who can only be removed “for cause,” but leaves rest of statute creating the CFPB in place


Also, I find it lame that they didn't rule on this
#SCOTUS declines to step into dispute over whether Texas must allow mail-in voting for all, w/out an excuse, during COVID-19 pandemic. No dissent recorded, although Sotomayor urges court of appeals to consider issue “well in advance of the November election”

couldn't think of a more time-sensitive decision

file under "dem pipe dream"… been seeing a lot of chatter about this:

Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News

if he did do it, he'd obviously spin it as "don't need to run, since i've already accomplished so much. also, media/elections/vote by mail/etc. so unfair they won't give me chance in this rigged election."  pence would pick up the republican mantle and be the november fall guy.

[font=verdana]personally, i don't see his ego allowing him to quit.  [/font]

another theory is that if he loses, he'll quit before biden's inauguration, and president pence would then give him a blanket pardon for all federal crimes.  NY will still want to have a word with him…

These stories insult one’s intelligence

sweetcell wrote:
file under "dem pipe dream"… been seeing a lot of chatter about this:

Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News

if he did do it, he'd obviously spin it as "don't need to run, since i've already accomplished so much. also, media/elections/vote by mail/etc. so unfair they won't give me chance in this rigged election."  pence would pick up the republican mantle and be the november fall guy.

[font=verdana]personally, i don't see his ego allowing him to quit.  [/font]

another theory is that if he loses, he'll quit before biden's inauguration, and president pence would then give him a blanket pardon for all federal crimes.  NY will still want to have a word with him…

This is not happening but if we are going to play hypothetical world, if Trump is dropping out, the repudiation of all things Trump would stain Pence. You’d probably get some sort of weird Romney/Rubio unity ticket that ran to the center.

Julian, wrote:
if we are going to play hypothetical world, if Trump is dropping out, the repudiation of all things Trump would stain Pence. You’d probably get some sort of weird Romney/Rubio unity ticket that ran to the center.

ah, interesting observation - you're assuming most GOP'ers have enough shame and humility to admit they were wrong to kowtow to trump for the past 4 years.  right-wingers aren't know for admitting their wrongs and changing their minds.  also, given the short timeline, they'd have to be confident that trump supporters wouldn't line up behind pence - a block they would need to motivate if they even pretended to try to win.  i'm certainly hoping that the minute trump is out of the picture we'll return to some semblance of sanity, but who knows…

in case you have questions about what happens if a candidate dies or withdraws, this is the best answer i could find.

sweetcell wrote:

Julian, wrote:
if we are going to play hypothetical world, if Trump is dropping out, the repudiation of all things Trump would stain Pence. You’d probably get some sort of weird Romney/Rubio unity ticket that ran to the center.

ah, interesting observation - you're assuming most GOP'ers have enough shame and humility to admit they were wrong to kowtow to trump for the past 4 years.  right-wingers aren't know for admitting their wrongs and changing their minds.  also, given the short timeline, they'd have to be confident that trump supporters wouldn't line up behind pence - a block they would need to motivate if they even pretended to try to win.  i'm certainly hoping that the minute trump is out of the picture we'll return to some semblance of sanity, but who knows…

in case you have questions about what happens if a candidate dies or withdraws, this is the best answer i could find.

You’re taking what I said as “admit they were wrong” where I see it as “pivot on a dime to win”, which Republicans are much better at than Dems.

GOPers aren’t moving on low taxes and abortion and guns and none of those ideas are unique to Trump. They will case aside the cult of his personality, the Mexican thing, and aversion to masks they second it costs them an election as they always do.

Julian, wrote:You’re taking what I said as “admit they were wrong” where I see it as “pivot on a dime to win”, which Republicans are much better at than Dems.

GOPers aren’t moving on low taxes and abortion and guns and none of those ideas are unique to Trump. They will case aside the cult of his personality, the Mexican thing, and aversion to masks they second it costs them an election as they always do.

So you are correct in this… I do think the landscape has changed

The GOP brass is good as doing what you said
but the base…they are like Frankenstein after freebasing bath salts…something the GOP does not have control over
They are just riding this bucking bronco to win (and that's really all that matters to them….maintain power)
The Base is 100% like, "I'm not a republican and the GOP can suck eggs I'm team trump to 2044 baby!"

we see in Tom Cotton and other Republicans (DeSantis blaming covid spread on migrant workers) how the party is adopting - has adopted-fascism… mainstreaming it

The problem may seem to be Trump but he is the symptom


Always amazes me how people don’t get this…electing Biden is necessary to preserve our nation and a first step but will not in it of itself solve our problems…FOX isn’t going anywhere…racism isn’t going anywhere…

In fact the conversation we need to have - while running hard/ is what we will do January 2021

We need serious changes.. Republicans aren’t going to roll over..we cannot have a repeat of the Obama presidency which while fantastic on form has to , in retrospect, be viewed as ineffectual and having at the very least not done enough to stop the rise of fascism

hutch wrote:
Republicans aren’t going to roll over..we cannot have a repeat of the Obama presidency which while fantastic on form has to , in retrospect, be viewed as ineffectual and having at the very least not done enough to stop the rise of fascism

Mitch and the GOP were VERY impactful on their tactics to give zero wins to Obama for the last 6 years
McCain saved Obamacare helped give him one of his only wins…Mitch was not happy

This is fun
After months of telling people not to wear masks
Fox News host Steve Doocy all but begs RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel to get Trump to wear a mask. Republicans have been talking up wearing masks after months of Trump mocking them.
"Masks Are Great Again" Doocy says, suggesting a MAGA slogan.