The 2020 thread....

538 has Biden at 89.58% to win and Trump at 9.9625%, the first time it’s fallen below 10. Biden is currently rounding up to 90% on the main graphic but if he actually slides above 90% at some point in the next few days, it will trigger the race to move from “Biden is favored to win” to “Biden is clearly favored to win”.

Time to oil up the pants area for some laps around the yard.

Was kinda surprised that Trump didn’t start a war or something as a distraction and to get the undecided to ‘support the president’

Welp…. @realdonaldtrump Big win for our very elite U.S. Special Forces today. Details to follow!

Opinions on top-two primaries…where every party runs in the primary (in a state election) and the top two are the ones on the ballot in the general.

I think there are some good arguments for it, but I hate seeing two Rs or two Ds on the ballot, something seems off about it.

I'd really wish the Dems internally to do more ranked-choice voting in the primaries.  I think we'd actually get someone the majority could get behind, vs the one who really only got 30% of the vote in the first months of the primaries.  I also think the presidential primary should just be 4 dates, use the time zones.  I honestly don't think Joe would have been the candidate if we did it that way (or Trump for that matter)

If Joe wasn’t the candidate we wouldn’t have a prayer! Imagine Bernie or Warren or Pete! My god there wouldn’t be anything left….


Even my sister who was big into Bernie in 16 and Warren in 20(a pattern not uncommon) admits Trump would have eaten them alive

Republican-led effort to throw out nearly 127,000 votes that were cast in Harris Co TX
Thankfully the TX supreme court blocked this, but does that mean they appeal to the SCOTUS

I am so tired of this, they continually say how the 'left hates democracy' yet they do shit (or try to) all the time

This guy just revised his vote total to 165-175 million


If it we’re to get that high - asI have said before- I think all bets are off although none of the pollsters I read seem to feel this way…it would be the highest turnout % in over a century (keeping in mind restrictions on voting)



I am skeptical it will get that high

Going to be fascinating Tuesday night..scary fascinating .

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1322895897685053441

Wow 94.2 million early votes cast!
Polling may be impacted, but IMO high turnout only benefits the Democratic Party (why do you think they try so hard to suppress the vote)

Martin wrote:
Wow 94.2 million early votes cast!
Polling may be impacted, but IMO high turnout only benefits the Democratic Party (why do you think they try so hard to suppress the vote)

Don’t be silly… they try to (and do) suppress the DEMOCRATIC vote…

bitter wrote:

Martin wrote:
Wow 94.2 million early votes cast!
Polling may be impacted, but IMO high turnout only benefits the Democratic Party (why do you think they try so hard to suppress the vote)

Don’t be silly… they try to (and do) suppress the DEMOCRATIC vote…

That's what he just said, albeit maybe with not enough clarity?

Polls seem to be tightening but there are so many outfits I am not sure how credible some of these polls on RCP are

Biden arrives - polling wise- in better shape than HRC…I guess consensus is polls would have to be even more wrong than 2016 for Biden not to win

Of course Election clusterfuckery couled be worse this time

Lots of polls that made for tightening yesterday were "low-quality" ones according to 538. Great high-quality batch came in this morning. PA back up to close to 5.5% polling average.

In fact, for the first time . . .



. . . they have moved the race from Biden favored to CLEARLY favored.

Real Clear Politics seems to have got a little weird…

ONE day to go!!!!

bitter wrote:
https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tight-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

That is just a massive outlier. I'm not saying its wrong but there's literally an equally ranked pollster who did a sample of 6 times the size also released today who has Biden +12.

Freaking out about individual polls when there's 40 polls released a day is a fool's errand.

Julian, wrote:
Lots of polls that made for tightening yesterday were "low-quality" ones according to 538.

After the 2016 debacle I consider them all to be “low quality” until they consistently prove themselves otherwise.

Ok fair but IBD has a good track record…they predicted Trump’s 2016 win…


They could still be way off this year

WTF is Patriotic Education other than teaching about White Supremacy?