The 2020 thread....

gavroche wrote:

Julian, wrote:

gavroche wrote:
The competition was scared that Bernie would win with a plurality (like Trump did)

Trump had a delegate majority by a pretty comfortable margin in 2016, not a plurality.

Trump had a delegate majority with a plurality of the votes. He only got 45% of the votes in the Republican primary, total.

That’s true.

Julian, wrote:

gavroche wrote:
The competition was scared that Bernie would win with a plurality (like Trump did)

Trump had a delegate majority by a pretty comfortable margin in 2016, not a plurality.

mostly because of the GOP does the winner take all
I think he won a lot of states with way less than 50%
he won Super Tuesday with 34% of the vote (overall…he did win 7 of the 11, but none cracking 50% on any the states he won)

Primaries should really be ranked choice…trump would have never won if they were like that
60% of the GOP primary voters were not voting for him
but they all fell in line quick

hutch wrote:
And Pete was dead when he came in behind Biden in NV

Had he come in ahead of Biden he might  have had a chance to do a bit better in SC but when he got that blown out it was over

I think it's pretty clear, the center of the Democratic Party is bigger than the the left on election night.  The left can only win by pulling new voters.

The left (Bernie, EW) has more passionate and committed voters.  That's reflected online and in small donations.

The center has more big money donors.

The left can still only win if there are enough central candidates to split the vote.

We disagree on whether Biden had an overwhelming victory or if it was a case of everyone else deciding to drop out because Bernie was a threat. 

Pete and Amy never had a chance to win on their own unless all of the other moderates dropped out.  Their only viable pathways were brokered conventions.

Bernie was never getting above 35 or 40%, so his only chance was to get the majority of the delegates with a plurality of the voters (or close enough that it would have been difficult for the party not to pick him).  He needed a bunch of folks to be sticking around while getting 14 or 15 percent and to be able to build the perception of inevitability. 

538 still had no one receiving the majority of the delegates as the overwhelmingly most likely outcome before Pete and Amy dropped out together and Biden with only a slim chance of winning a majority.  I don't see how that is him wiping the floor, it looks a lot more like a brokered convention pre-convention to me.  Nothing wrong with that, I just don't think it is an indicator that Biden is a strong candidate or that he has a lot of support.  I think he's weaker than HRC was in 2016, and Trump is stronger.  The real hope is if the left takes this election more seriously (and it is allowed to take place honestly).     

Laughing wrote:
Primaries should really be ranked choice…trump would have never won if they were like that
60% of the GOP primary voters were not voting for him
but they all fell in line quick

I strongly support this, but I think the left of the Democratic Party would benefit under this system. 

I'm not as sure what it would do for the Republicans, but I do agree Trump wouldn't have won.

I think DJT thinks you guys are all wrong about Warren and Bernie

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Nobody wants to say that if Elizabeth Warren gets out of the race before Super Tuesday, Crazy Bernie Sanders wins virtually every state in a blowout…NOT EVEN CLOSE!  I haven’t heard one member of the Fake News Establishment even mention this irrefutable fact. FAKE NEWS!


Irrefutable??
I've not done the math, but if every single warren vote goes to bernie, this would not give him a blow out in virtually every state?
I  know he lies all the time….


Found this pretty quick
Biden’s margin over Sanders was larger than Warren’s total vote in five of the Super Tuesday states he carried (Alabama, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Arkansas).

And you might as well add a sixth where Biden would have surely won anyway: Oklahoma, where his margin over Bernie (13.3 percent) means that virtually every single one of the 13.4 percent voting for Warren there would have had to pull the lever for Sanders to catapult him to victory.

alas I guess is an effort to get unhappy Sanders supporters come to the Republican Party
Even the berniebros can do math, so not likely

Just look at results in Michigan for Super Tuesday a State won by Sanders in 2016.  Warren got less than 2% there.  Bloomberg has got more votes than Warren Biden got votes where Sanders succeed last time around.  Some analysis suggested it was sexism that helped propel him last time around. 

You had to know a campaign strategy was to have faux news endlessly repeat the word socialism if Bernie was the candidate..

kosmo wrote:
You had to know a campaign strategy was to have faux news endlessly repeat the word socialism if Bernie was the candidate..

Have you seen the (coordinated) tweets from GOP senators with the #BernieIsStillOnTheBallot
they are still trying to find a way to keep socialism on the ballot

Mighty proud to be a Virginian lately…now it's a law for no-excuse absentee ballot!  (not quite votebymail…but getting there)

Only wish they'd done a little better on Pot reform….but other than that, kicking ass and taking names

Virginia governor makes Election Day a holiday and expands early voting

The new legislation also repeals the current Lee-Jackson day holiday which honored Robert E. Lee and Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson  and replacing it by making Election Day a state holiday.."

Just a state holiday…so not really sure that many people other than people working for the state of VA
but it's a start

VA= third least Covid 19 tests per million in US

hutch wrote:
VA= third least Covid 19 tests per million in US

wrong thread, but that's not good news
especially when the reddest of MAGA states are way ahead

Do you think that is state Gov't lack of response? Or is there some other reason
I would think there is a very transient population in VA and that would make it risky compared to other states

I have no idea


The Governor is a Dr and seemingly all about public health

absolute wrote:
Only wish they'd done a little better on Pot reform….but other than that, kicking ass and taking names

Unless COVID totally details all was, this is coming in the next two years.

absolute wrote:
Just a state holiday…so not really sure that many people other than people working for the state of VA
but it's a start

It does nothing for the poorest percentage of the population whose jobs most interfere with getting to the polls.

I see it as a goal for federal government and we have to start somewhere

But I guess federal government can’t compel Texas , for example, right?

Not to mention the specter of Supreme Court overriding anything remotely progressive

I have to believe come November Republicans are going to get wiped out

Julian, wrote:

absolute wrote:
Only wish they'd done a little better on Pot reform..s

this is coming in the next two years.

What was the reasoning behind waiting?  Could have been a good job and tax revenue generator in 2020
and VA has been arresting (mostly poor minorities) at an alarming rate over the last few years
Virginia prosecuted 46,000+ marijuana cases in 2018
almost 20,000 people, most of them African Americans, were found guilty, leaving them with a criminal record
Wish they did something to address that
You know how screwed for life you are when you have a criminal record…even a misdemeanor, most people won't even consider hiring you

Julian, wrote:

absolute wrote:
Just a state holiday…so not really sure that many people other than people working for the state of VA
but it's a start

It does nothing for the poorest percentage of the population whose jobs most interfere with getting to the polls.

That's what I thought, does essentially nothing (getting rid of Lee-Jackson day was a good move tho), but CNN and others ran this as the headline.  So many other big deal things were passed

hutch wrote:
I see it as a goal for federal government and we have to start somewhere
But I guess federal government can’t compel Texas , for example, right?
Not to mention the specter of Supreme Court overriding anything remotely progressive

I don't know how federal holidays work.  As a private business, you can operate on any day and compel your staff to work.  Any Gov't orgs (fed/state/local), Financial, probably most non-profits all get those days off.  So a federal holiday still wouldn't compel most employeers to give the day off…but if it was a federal holiday, I think that close to 75% of the working population would get to take advantage of that.
but not as Jules said…the working poor, as those jobs don't get holidays, PTO or sick days.  so they are still disenfranchised.  That's why early and votebymail are more important that a holiday imo

hutch wrote:
I have to believe come November Republicans are going to get wiped out

my schadenfreude might give me an aneurysm on that news

Glad to hear good news out of Wisconsin….sucks people may likely die because of it
although I'd like to talk to these 500 people John Delaney 534 votes Tulsi had a strong showing, almost beating local Amy and beating Tom S and Yang

Rep. Justin Amash says he’s looking ‘closely’ at White House run w/ the libertarian party…kinda good news as someone old school republicans would feel good about voting for.  You would think the teaparty crew would love him…but as we've seen that was a bullshit revolution based mostly on racism
my only fear it is where the bernie bros will go
I think he would be great on the debate stage and really steal Trumps spotlight



Unrelated…
this is a shocking turn for someone who defended the president on the Senate floor
Jonathan Turley@JonathanTurley
President Trump just stated that the power of the federal government is "absolute."  That would effectively negate federalism and a variety of other constitutional principles. "Absolutes" find little sanctuary within our constitutional system of limited and shared powers.
7:32 PM · Apr 13, 2020

absolute wrote:
Rep. Justin Amash says he’s looking ‘closely’ at White House run w/ the libertarian party…kinda good news as someone old school republicans would feel good about voting for. 

that would be a piece of news that would brighten my week.  nay, month.  just need Amash to siphon off a few votes in PA, a few in AZ, maybe a sprinkling in WI and MI too…

sweetcell wrote:

absolute wrote:
Rep. Justin Amash says he’s looking ‘closely’ at White House run w/ the libertarian party…kinda good news as someone old school republicans would feel good about voting for. 

that would be a piece of news that would brighten my week.  nay, month.  just need Amash to siphon off a few votes in PA, a few in AZ, maybe a sprinkling in WI and MI too…

Would he actually siphon off Trump votes more than he would siphon off Never Trumpers who would have been fine voting for Biden?

Space wrote:
Would he actually siphon off Trump votes more than he would siphon off Never Trumpers who would have been fine voting for Biden?

I agree, but I do think some of those NT would be happy to vote not for a democrat and ensure a trump loss