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The 2020 thread....

Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:23 PM UTC #
Space wrote:
sweetcell wrote:
gavroche wrote:
He won a single primary (of a State the Dems will never carry in November) before they all gave way.

incorrect.  biden crushed on super tuesday, in multiple states, before the competition started throwing in the towel.


Really? I thought only Bernie, Biden, and Warren (not counting Tulsi) were left once Super Tuesday rolled around.

this always hurts to say, but space is correct
that was the big deal is Pete and Amy dropped out as those votes went almost directly to Biden, had they stayed in, Bernie would have probably won more states (but by way lower than 50% of the vote)
Bloomberg was the big wildcard and could have possibly taken a bunch of Biden votes
Had Bloomy skiped the debates…this might be a different race right now

Joe Biden won Alabama, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia; Bernie Sanders won California, Colorado, Utah, and his home state of Vermont; and Michael Bloomberg won American Samoa. Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard failed to win any contest.
jrpa
Joined: September 03, 2013 at 03:15 PM UTC
Posts: 29999
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:25 PM UTC #
Bernie Sanders had four years to build a bigger coalition then he had in 2016. He got less of the vote. He couldn’t make nice with his proverbial next door neighbors (Wang and Warren voters).

Explain to me again how he was going to flip Obama-Trump voters? He couldn’t flip people who were 95% of the way there.

Can we just call a spade a spade and stop this rigged talk and admit he ran a terrible campaign?
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:26 PM UTC #
Amy was getting 5%!!

You can’t assume it’s static and their supporters wouldn’t have largely migrated to Biden even if they had stayed in

Come on!
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:28 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Amy was getting 5%!!

You can’t assume it’s static and their supporters wouldn’t have largely migrated to Biden even if they had stayed in

Come on!

there is no way biden would have taken Minnesota if Amy stayed in!
hutch
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Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:31 PM UTC #
Ok but that’s one state - her home state- and he would still have broken the 15% threshold and gotten delegates!


hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:33 PM UTC #
They dropped out cause they were out of money and didn’t have a prayer and preferred dropping out to losing really badly. I mean how did Pete and Amy do in SC and how where they going to do on Super Tuesday?


It’s called politics

Geezus

Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:33 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Ok but that’s one state - her home state- and he would still have broken the 15% threshold and gotten delegates!

of course I'm joking
but she was a threat to biden, even if it was just 5% of the vote…and pete taking another 10%
that would have let Bernie win a few more races
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 07:34 PM UTC #
Read my post above


It’s called politics
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 08:05 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:I mean how did Pete and Amy do in SC and how where they going to do on Super Tuesday?


It's really hard to say what would have happened if they stayed in, yes they would have lost badly, but enough to give the bern enough wiggle room to get more delegates than Biden after ST and that would have changed the calculus a lot

Whether it was coordinated or not (I now believe it was, but don't think the DNC demanded it, they cut a deal on future involvement)….it did make a big impact for Biden, no doubt about it
That bloomberg flopped so bad was a surprise for me
sweetcell
Joined: July 18, 2006 at 05:01 AM UTC
Posts: 22608
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 08:16 PM UTC #
Julian, wrote:
Can we just call a spade a spade and stop this rigged talk and admit he ran a terrible campaign?

regardless of the quality of the campaign (which i thought was pretty good, clear messaging, but whatever), a campaign can't win if its ideas are both polarizing and espoused by less than 30% of the target population.  if someone fundamentally opposes the concept of universal healthcare, all the marketing in the world isn't going to change that.  bernie was able to mobilize a vocal minority, but got no traction with the majority.
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 08:24 PM UTC #
Poppycock Sidehatch


jrpa
Joined: September 03, 2013 at 03:15 PM UTC
Posts: 29999
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 08:37 PM UTC #
sweetcell wrote:
a campaign can't win if its ideas are both polarizing and espoused by less than 30% of the target population.  if someone fundamentally opposes the concept of universal healthcare, all the marketing in the world isn't going to change that.
See, I would argue you’ve thrown out there the perfect example of why Bernies campaign was bad. “Medicare for All” is wildly popular even among a stunning group of GOPers. A public option, even moreso. Want to know what is supported by less than 30% of the population? Banning personal health insurance. And that’s what Bernie chose to demand - and would make no compromise on with regard to his platform.

A lot of the general principles of Bernie’s ideas have wide support, but he also demanded the most idealistic, narrow specific version of them. He had four years to build a coalition around 90% of his platform and he would tolerate no compromise, no middle-ground. He was only open to people joining his coalition if they unquestioningly decided he was right on everything and passed a purity test. He attacked his closest ideological comrades.

And that is why Bernie supporters continue to say he was cheated and it was rigged — because to be a Bernie supporter in 2020 means being a person who believes Bernie is always right and anyone standing in his way must be 100% wrong. Same as Trump supporters. Same as David Koresh’s supporters. The cognitive dissonance is so thick you can cut it with a knife.
Sidehatch
Joined: October 04, 2011 at 04:33 AM UTC
Posts: 25687
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 08:38 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
Poppycock Sidehatch

gavroche
Joined: February 03, 2013 at 11:51 PM UTC
Posts: 512
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 10:28 PM UTC #
hutch wrote:
They dropped out cause they were out of money and didn’t have a prayer and preferred dropping out to losing really badly. I mean how did Pete and Amy do in SC and how where they going to do on Super Tuesday?


It’s called politics

Geezus


We get back to what I said above:
Biden didn't wipe the floor with the competition. He won a single primary (of a State the Dems will never carry in November) and all of the moderates dropped out. (They were all gone by Super Tuesday).  Similarly, Biden won a single primary and his lackluster fundraising started to pick up.  The competition was scared that Bernie would win with a plurality (like Trump did) and so everyone coalesced around Biden.

This thing was heading towards a brokered convention (kinda scary to imagine a brokered convention in the age of COVID-19) until the party establishment came together around a single candidate.


hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 10:48 PM UTC #
Well I understand your point but:

Candidates doing poorly and whose $
always drop out and support the eventual winner (often hoping for future considerations)

Having it in the bag on Super Tuesday by definition means it was a romp

Amy K had hardly any votes in NV and SC…like a few percentage points…how was she to continue?

I liked Bloomberg more than Biden - at least at time- but when I had to vote I knew to go for Biden because Sanders had zero chance of beating Trump

Likewise many Amy and Pete supporters would have done same even if they had stayed in and the candidates realized this

You are forgetting the arc of the campaign…People had lost faith in Biden but by Super Tuesday he looked very viable so people came back to him
jrpa
Joined: September 03, 2013 at 03:15 PM UTC
Posts: 29999
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 10:55 PM UTC #
gavroche wrote:
The competition was scared that Bernie would win with a plurality (like Trump did)
Trump had a delegate majority by a pretty comfortable margin in 2016, not a plurality.
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 10:56 PM UTC #
And Pete was dead when he came in behind Biden in NV

Had he come in ahead of Biden he might  have had a chance to do a bit better in SC but when he got that blown out it was over
Space Freely
Joined: December 13, 2014 at 07:28 PM UTC
Posts: 11019
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 10:59 PM UTC #
"like" and "Bloomburg" are two words I'd never use in he same sentence.

Another billionaire president? No thanks.
hutch
Joined: Unknown
Posts: 0
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 11:00 PM UTC #
Is Trump a billionaire?
Prove it
gavroche
Joined: February 03, 2013 at 11:51 PM UTC
Posts: 512
Re: The 2020 thread.... April 09, 2020 at 11:23 PM UTC #
Julian, wrote:
gavroche wrote:
The competition was scared that Bernie would win with a plurality (like Trump did)
Trump had a delegate majority by a pretty comfortable margin in 2016, not a plurality.


Trump had a delegate majority with a plurality of the votes. He only got 45% of the votes in the Republican primary, total.
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