random . . . randomness

Julian, wrote:

RatBastard wrote:
You 'statistics' are invalid.  Summing averages is a meaningless measure. The more meaningful numbers would be this…


Thread                     Total Posts                Age In Years           Avg Posts Per Year
Nats Thread                854                                9                               95
Fantasy Football          863                                8                              108
NFL                            231                                 9                              26
Survivor Pool              179                                 2                              90
Orioles                        799                                2                              400

Sports Total              2926                               30                               98


Thread                     Total Posts                Age In Years           Avg Posts Per Year
JA                              36060                             12                             3005
Low ticket                     188                               4                              47
JA Commentary           3805                               4                              951
Rollcall                        7586                               7                              1084
Post Show Banter        1590                               3                              530
Golden Years                283                                1                              283
Musicological                1312                               3                             437
JA NYC                         746                                3                             249
Showlist                       297                                3                              99
2015 Albums                203                                1                              203

Music Total                52070                             41                              1270

What? That's laughably terrible statistical analysis. You can't sum Thread Age in Years for sports and music and divide the total by that. You seriously are positing that we post only 98 posts about sports per year?

It is 100% valid.  You are looking at the average number of posts per year in the threads of the given type.  This is EXACTLY the number that is important.  The number you posted which is a sum of the averages means absolutely nothing and has no comparative value at all.  This is even more obvious when you note that one group has a larger sample size.  You obviously have no concept of statistics what so ever.  No need to discuss this any further.

ggw wrote:

Julian, wrote:
I'll give you that the Nats are a tough case since their franchise hasn't been around that long so there isn't a throwback of an older player from when you were a kid to get.

Moises Alou

I have a Vlad Guerrero Expos jersey that I stopped wearing because Canadians kept coming up to me and asking me if I was from Canada….

Julian, wrote:
Let me give you a simpler example to show why your method is inane. Let's say there are two threads that are each two years old, and one has 800 posts and the other 2. By my methodology, I would compute that those two threads are averaging as a group 401 posts per year. By your methodology, you'd say it's 200.5.

I'm not saying my methodology is perfect (for one thing, it's limited only to threads in the top two pages, it presumes all posts in a thread are on-topic, and it estimates years as integers) but yours is literally insane. You cannot count up a total number of posts and divide by the combined thread ages of all those threads, namely since the time of many overlaps. You can't divide 52070 by 41 years and think that number is at all relevant. The board is only 12 years old!

The total post divided by the total years is the only valid measure.

vansmack wrote:

ggw wrote:

Julian, wrote:
I'll give you that the Nats are a tough case since their franchise hasn't been around that long so there isn't a throwback of an older player from when you were a kid to get.

Moises Alou

I have a Vlad Guerrero Expos jersey that I stopped wearing because Canadians kept coming up to me and asking me if I was from Canada….

Those Canadians are sooooo provincial…

RatBastard wrote:

Julian, wrote:
Let me give you a simpler example to show why your method is inane. Let's say there are two threads that are each two years old, and one has 800 posts and the other 2. By my methodology, I would compute that those two threads are averaging as a group 401 posts per year. By your methodology, you'd say it's 200.5.

I'm not saying my methodology is perfect (for one thing, it's limited only to threads in the top two pages, it presumes all posts in a thread are on-topic, and it estimates years as integers) but yours is literally insane. You cannot count up a total number of posts and divide by the combined thread ages of all those threads, namely since the time of many overlaps. You can't divide 52070 by 41 years and think that number is at all relevant. The board is only 12 years old!

The total post divided by the total years is the only valid measure.

Only if the components of what you're adding are from mutually exclusive years.

Ratbastard, by your analysis, there should be 490 (98 posts per thread average x the 5 threads) in sports threads in all of 2015. 3/4ths of the way thru, by my quick count (seeing at what page the threads clicked over to 2015 posts, then counting number of pages to the end and multiplying by the number of posts the software puts per page, 15 by my settings) there have actually been 715 posts so far. I wouldn't exactly say your methodology is doing a very good job of estimating the 2015 post counts, or current traffic, in sports vs music threads which was what Sidehatch was asking about.

Its almost like, I don't know, your model doesn't normalize time as a variable to take into account that there might be a different number of active posters during different years on the board or something. *shrug*

back to random, randomness.  I can,t decide any,thing, any,more.  I,m going for frozen yogurt, next door to my office.

walk,on,by wrote:
back to random, randomness.  I can,t decide any,thing, any,more.  I,m going for frozen yogurt, next door to my office.

Don't hit any bikers while you're out.

walk,on,by wrote:
back to random, randomness.  I can,t decide any,thing, any,more.  I,m going for frozen yogurt, next door to my office.

If you eat two frozen yogurts and three ice creams in a year, would you say you eat

a. 5/1=5 frozen treats per year
b. 5/2=2.5 frozen treats per year

today feels like Wednesday

<a href="http://www.eater.com/2015/9/10/9302171/chipotle-sustainable-pork-supplier-niman-ranch-perdue-farms-deal">Purdue Farms just bought Niman Ranch</a>
<a href="http://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog/fox-just-bought-national-geographic">Fox just bought National Geographic</a>

jaded wrote:
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.eater.com/2015/9/10/9302171/chipotle-sustainable-pork-supplier-niman-ranch-perdue-farms-deal&quot;&gt;Purdue Farms just bought Niman Ranch&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog/fox-just-bought-national-geographic&quot;&gt;Fox just bought National Geographic&lt;/a&gt;

Seems like these should have gone in the onion thread
sad news on both accounts…grr capitalism

Yeah, I debated whether or not to put them there…almost too sad to be funny though.

is it Fox or Fox Century Films? are they the same thing?

question that i need a quick answer to: where is will-call at MPP?  if i park at the mall, will i need to walk all the way around the venue to get to it?

danke!

No. 

thanks, killsaly!

FYI, in case anyone hasn't picked up tickets for EitS/DCFC on sunday: looks like a drop happened today, i just picked up some nice center pavilion seats.

so do we now need an "active shooter at…" thread?

I am really starting to rethink my stance on eugenics

Sidehatch wrote:
so do we now need an &quot;active shooter at…&quot; thread?

I thought that's what this was for:

http://forum.930.com/index.php?topic=2338.0